Category Archives: Government

Why is the UK Government Shambolic?

Well, well, well, the UK Parliament has now completed their demonstration of irrelevance to the people of the UK. IN 2016 the people provided the most conclusive referendum result in British history instructing our politicians to leave the EU. What have our politicians done about it? We have politicians who claim that 17 million people were completely duped into a decision to leave – what an arrogant lack of respect for the people. They further argue that Brexit will make the UK poorer by 3.9% over 15 years. Such economics is not only irrelevant once projections exceed 5 years, but also assume the remainder of the World remains stable – most unlikely. These people are so deluded that they think people care about such minimal projection compared with maintaining their English way of life.

Then we have Teresa May’s idea of a negotiated exit. She tried to be all things to all people and was duped into an exit deal which is meaningless to all with the first attempted sacrifice of national sovereignty in UK history with the so-called backstop. As an experienced negotiator with some 30-years of experience of negotiated deals throughout the world had I been David Davis and found out that she had been agreeing terms counter to my strategy behind my back I would have ripped her throat out. A negotiator goes to the table with a mandate to agree a deal, not play puppet. She should listen to her own words when she has often said that no deal is better than a bad deal. Then she should understand that united, her enemies stand; divided they fall. Her isolationist approach allowed her enemies both in the UK Parliament and the EU to unite against her. About time she studied Sun Tzu’s ‘Art of War’. She listens to civil servants (who were probably remainers) rather than seasoned negotiators. When have such people ever negotiated a good commercial deal – think PFI and MoD procurement over the years. Her track record with the recent Conservative Party Manifesto which so obviously would lose her votes speaks volumes about her approach. Then she tries to apply a hard line by regularly stating that her deal is not only the best deal but the only deal that can be obtained. What an amateur. Who does she think she is kidding? She gives her very soft Brexit stance away when she insists that she is honouring the 2016 Referendum result but safeguarding economic interests. You cannot go to the negotiating table with one foot in each side of the argument and expect to satisfy anyone other than the EU.

We have a Parliament populated by a few who understand pragmatic democracy, the remainder being either traitors to both democracy and the people they are elected to represent, or opportunists who care only for power at any cost. Even seasoned politicians such as Ken Clarke fail to respect the 2016 Referendum result. Whatever happened to integrity, honour, servitude, and loyalty to the democratic process? The mandarins in Brussels must be laughing their socks off.  I sincerely hope that the people of the UK remember these traitors at the next General Election and cast then aside.

There is no escaping that the weak position adopted by Teresa May in these negotiations means that the UK has very little substance to show after two years of negotiation. Her stance of an amicable, soft Brexit settlement has led to concession after concession and a large exit bill without so much as a letter of intent regarding a future trade deal when such a deal could so easily be on the table today if the EU wanted such a deal. Whatever happened to “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”? Had M. Barnier arrived at the negotiating table with a contained mandate that no trade deal could be discussed until the exit terms have been agreed a seasoned negotiator would counter with the proposal that exit terms will only be agreed when a trade deal is part of that process. The EU played well. They used the emotive Northern Ireland border issue with great effect, and May’s secret team fell for it hook, line, and sinker forgetting that it is the EU who are insisting on a hard border, and which is not necessary in any event with a suitable trade deal. The UK is not obliged to install a hard border leaving the Irish Government, hence the EU in a difficult position. And the EU’s stance; the UK wants to leave so it is their problem, and May’s team swallowed it. Negotiation is a war where dignity and respect are maintained throughout, but never accepting any responsibility or compassion for the other side’s position.

The collaborative position of the EU and the UK traitors against an ill-equipped negotiating position have manifested itself into the shambles we have today.

It is perfectly clear that the EU will do anything to avoid losing the control they currently enjoy over the UK. It is devastating to the EU both politically and economically to lose the second largest economy within the EU and to lose the influence that the UK provides in the global arena. And they want to avoid having such a large successful trading nation as a neighbour without any influence over such a nation. And off course they want to avoid losing any other major countries of the EU so must make the UK exit as difficult as possible. And we must include vested national interests such as the opportunist Irish Government seeking to use Brexit to re-unite Northern Ireland with Ireland. The contra of this is that the UK is a significant trading partner in the EU with a net surplus of Euro 1 billion per week in favour of the mainland EU. The UK is the third largest trading partner of Germany in the world, and the largest exporting partner for the German automotive industry. France exports some Euro 37 billion of produce to the UK each year. We have just witnessed how a few thousand angry demonstrators react to (needed) social and fiscal reform in France with President Macron being forced to retreat. Think about the impact of some one million farmers, trucker, and other associated business interests on the streets if told that they can no longer deliver such produce to the UK tariff free. Spain have already declared that their close relationship with the UK predates that with the EU and they have no interest in damaging such relationship. And I think Italy will just ignore Brussels. Therefore, reality will be far more powerful than political posturing. What a strong position for a Brexit negotiation. So why is the UK negotiating team sympathising with these EU realities. They are powerful weapons, and I don’t see the EU having concerns over the impact to UK citizens of their proposed stranglehold over the UK with the current deal.

As much as a no deal scenario is not desirable in the short-term because of the inevitable disruptive impact I have to agree that no deal is better than a bad deal. However, I am equally certain that the more devastating consequences to the EU of no deal would instil a needed dose of reality into this situation with the EU coming to the table with a far more reasonable and conciliatory attitude within weeks, if not days. The EU cannot afford a no deal Brexit, so the negotiating position is still wide open if the UK Government wake up and instil some British backbone into these negotiations. The Lithuanian Prime Minister has inadvertently indicated that the EU expects to concede more.

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BREXIT – The EU plan to derail Brexit is exposed

At last the EU has declared their devious hand – let’s make negotiations so difficult for the UK Government that they need to put the deal to a UK vote in order the derail Brexit. Typical EU shenanigans. Ark back to various treaties that required ratification by each member State. If any member State could not get the support of the people the orders from Brussels were go back and keep trying until you get the result we require. The EU are desperate to keep the UK within the EU because of the serious impact to them of losing such a powerful member. And no doubt they have been working with compliant members of the UK Government to spread fear and negative propaganda regarding the impacts of Brexit. Even Christine Lagarde from the IMF was brought out this past week to spread her evil discourse, but she did the same just before the Brexit Referendum and what a total fabrication of economic misrepresentation and lies that was.

The interesting question now is the extent to which Teresa May is complicit with the EU as she did vote to remain in the EU. I hope not but the knowledge that she was secretly negotiating with the EU through a separate team of Government mandarins whilst David Davis was officially in office to negotiate the UK exit deal (and over which David Davis resigned) does give cause for concern. If she fails to stand her ground on a ‘no deal’ Brexit then it is time for her to go. She clearly demonstrated in her disastrous General Election manifesto that she is not a competent leader of the people and I do not think her Chequer’s paper comes close enough to what the majority of the people expect. She has repeated stated that Brexit means the UK is out of the Customs Union, the Single Market, out from under the control of the European Court of Justice, and out of the free movement of EU citizens. I agree with the likes of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, David Davis and many others that Chequers doe not deliver this. The fact that Michael Gove has stated that a future Prime Minister will need to change her proposed deal speaks volumes.

We also see that the EU is specifically targeting the Irish border issue – probably the most emotive aspect of Brexit but in no way difficult to resolve. The UK has no desire to install a hard border crossing into Northern Ireland – a practically impossible task in any event, and not needed. The electronic border process that exists today can be readily adapted assuming that the EU is prepared to agree a free trade agreement with the UK. As this was the original intent of the EEC all those years ago and to which the UK joined – not political union – then this should be relatively straight-forward except that such an agreement would leave the door open for other member States to leave and this is the crux of the problem. The Irish border issue, and indeed Brexit, are not difficult for the UK, but they are a thorn in the side of the EU as they cannot ignore the serious impact to the EU of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit but have so many other problems that they do not want the UK to be the first of other States who see their future outside of the control of the mandarins in Brussels.

So where now? Obviously over the coming months we will see an avalanche of remoaner attempts to derail Brexit. No doubt the EU will both fuel such dissent and measure the impact as part of their strategy. Could I remind these remoaners that the UK has, for the past 100 years, been called upon to be steadfast against the conflicts within Europe. The UK is under attack from European mandarins who want control of Europe and the diminishing of the power of the UK in the process. This process is far from democratic and does challenge the freedom of the British way of life. I have recently visited with a number of different peoples of Europe who all agree that the general difference between mainland Europe and the UK is that Europe tends to be introspective whilst the UK tends to global in interests and reach. If remoaners need positive guidance they should look at the people who put their money where their mouth is. The UK stock market has been remarkably resilient in the face of substantial challenges since the Brexit vote. They believe in the future of the UK outside of the EU and buy into the UK. We see Apple moving its European headquarters to London as with Goldman Sachs, Microsoft and other major corporations. We also see Deutschebank take 25-year leases on two new office buildings in London. These people know where they need to be to prosper post-Brexit. Can armchair remoaners without such financial commitment challenge such business logic?

We are called upon yet again to be steadfast amidst the likes of well-meaning but unrealistic Lord Halifax and Neville Chamberlain attempting to appease the enemy. They are the enemy within and should certainly reap dire reward for their treachery. If Teresa May cannot stand her ground in the face of the EU shenanigans then she must step aside for the sake of the British people. The dogs are at the door; it is time to deal with their rabid intensions.

Does the UK Party Political System need a ‘Night of the Long Knives’?

 

Brexit has amplified blatant dissension amongst politicians of all persuasions. This not only creates difficulties getting anything done but also makes politics irrelevant as there is no longer the discipline within any party to fulfil manifesto pledges under collective responsibility. As politics in its disciplined form functions on mediocrity what we now have is treacherous chaos.

Having recently watched the ‘Darkest Hour’ account of the challenges faced by Winston Churchill during those dark days of May 1940 dealing with the plotting shenanigans of the fearful pacifists headed by Neville Chamberlain and Lord Halifax (whose view was essentially that he knew better than the people what was good for them). They completely undermined any attempt to deal with the fundamental reality that Adolf Hitler was hell-bent on conquering the whole of Europe, including the UK. Any hope of a peace deal as proposed by Halifax was pure fantasy based only on irrational fear. These people were the remoaners of today. Churchill’s ‘Night of the Long Knives’ came after speaking personally to the ordinary people on a tube train to Westminster and which prompted the courage to deliver his famous oratory to the Houses of Parliament on 4th June 1940. He mobilised the people of the UK to save the UK army stranded on the beaches of Dunkirk and to fight for the British way of life in the face of the overwhelming odds within mainland Europe, and in the face of certain members of UK politics. Sound familiar?

Our party-political system is based on people agreeing a basic ideology and creed regarding how to run a country. Like-minded people then form a party, select constituency representatives to stand as Members of Parliament under an agreed manifesto who, having achieved the majority of MP’s, select a leader who then forms an executive in the form of a cabinet. This cabinet is obliged to execute the manifesto upon which the people voted them into power with the full support of back-bench MP’s.

Think of the UK as a major corporate (UK plc) with a CEO (Prime Minister), Board of Directors (Cabinet), Line Managers (back-bench MP’s) and departmental workers (local constituents). Successful corporates will have competent and capable management resources who co-operate to secure their place in the market. Such corporates have a circular information flow in which strategy is fed from the Board down the ranks, and the ranks feed back the merits of such strategy in terms of execution and benefits. A competent Board will consist of Directors representing different factions of the company each expressing their own views without fear within the confines of the Boardroom. However, once a majority vote has been taken as to strategic direction then each Director, irrespective of their own personal view, is obliged to either diligently implement the agreed strategy, or find another job. Likewise with the Line Managers and departmental workers. Anyone expressing dissent or failing to comply will be quickly dispensed. A successful corporate needs allegiance and loyalty of all involved or it will surely fail.

So why do our politicians think that UK plc does not need the same corporate discipline to be successful? Why is it possible within UK plc to have a small band of Conservative back-bench MP’s who, in spite of their rhetoric to the contrary, are hell-bent on sabotaging Brexit – and think it entirely acceptable to attempt to hold the Prime Minister to ransom if she does not comply with their wishes. These people clearly think they know better than more than 17 million constituents and thus believe they have the right of treachery both to their political party and to the people of the UK.

In the case of Brexit David Cameron asked the people where they stand on UK membership of the EU. They responded in numbers never before witnessed – the majority wanted out. The people have spoken. The Executive has their instruction to leave the EU; the obligation of the back-bench MP’s to support the executive in the process regardless of their personal preference or how their own constituents voted – this was a national referendum; not regional.

So why are these rebels not dismissed? There must be a mechanism to dispense with these people. They are on the wrong side of the argument and are naphtha to the politicians in Brussels fighting to hold their power over the UK including extracting continuing contributions to its failing economy. Complex negotiations for Brexit are difficult enough without having the enemy within your own camp. As a trained negotiator the fundamental mindset is that life is simple, only people make it difficult. Unfortunately, the Churchillian orator powers of Socrates are a scarce resource at present so I fear we need an alternative ‘Night of the Long Knives’ to rid us of this treacherous few so that the people get what they expect. I would certainly like the opportunity in open debate to expose their lack of understanding of the EU venture to the UK people. When do these people wake up to the fact that the UK economy is robust despite the politically motivated propaganda of the likes of OECD and IMF. Of course the EU will trade with the UK on fair and reasonable terms – the trade deficit alone in favour of the EU is Euro one billion each week! Of course the most important centre of Global banking will remain in London (the USA have made several unsuccessful attempts to move this influence to the USA). And history has shown that the UK prospers better when it controls its own destiny.

Just a brief note on the antics of the House of Lords remoaners. Anyone familiar with the Corn Law of 1932 will understand the vested interests of hereditary peers in their fear of losing substantial subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy that should have been scrapped years ago.

If we go back to 1940 Clement Attlee, the leader of the opposition Labour Party understood the realities within Europe and proposed a grand coalition, but absolutely not under Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. Today we have a Labour Party in disarray regarding Brexit. Last week demonstrated that the rebels in the Conservative Party could easily be countered by the Brexiteers in the Labour Party. Thus, one remedy to rebels against Brexit would be a grand coalition of MP’s committed to the majority will of the people specifically for Brexit to achieve the best possible terms for Brexit putting Brussels on notice that the UK is united across the major parties in responding to the mandate of the British people. This would change the whole dynamic of negotiations with the EU and result in the effective beheading of the remoaners as would be the case under that greatest of Generals, Sun Tsu. Furthermore it would neutralise irrelevant but mischievous minority parties such as the Liberals and the SNP.

Has Democracy As A System of Government Run Its Course?

 

In a speech in the House of Commons on 11 November 1947, Winston Churchill said: No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time. Since then democracy has shown itself as a far from perfect system in that the inherent assumptions are that every voter has the capability to understand the issues, and the people elected to deal with the issues have the appropriate experience and wisdom to conduct the majority view of the people. Recent elections throughout the World demonstrate that neither assumption is reasonable. The result is a range of governments derived from populist to unwitting authoritarian.

My attention was drawn to the breakdown in democracy in Europe during the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty, and later the Lisbon and Nice treaties, where various EU member Governments were unable to achieve ratification of these treaties on a free vote but were instructed by the Brussels apparatchik to continue to poll until they achieved the required result, i.e. undemocratic attrition.

In the UK we have two clear examples. The BREXIT referendum attracted the largest turnout of any election in recent times by percentage of votes, and numbers who voted, thus should be deemed to be compliant with the fundamental principle of democracy. Using the fundamental principles of democracy the outcome should be accepted by all, and the Parliament of the day thus mandated by the people to conclude the exit process. Yet the remainers, or remoaners as I prefer to call them, are so vehemently opposed to the democratic result that they continue to attempt to thwart the BREXIT process without any consideration of the damage that they inflict on achieving a good divorce settlement for both the UK and the EU. To these people I say that you have no regard for democracy, the history and future of the UK, and the turnout for this important vote, but are instead far too consumed with blinkered argument with little concern regarding the damaging consequences for the people who voted, and subsequently respected the outcome of the referendum. I can assure these people that if this referendum were to rerun the vote would be more overwhelming.

Who are these people who cannot accept a democratic majority, and why do they think that they can abandon the principles of democracy in favour of a minority? I noted during the Andrew Marr show last Sunday that Labour MP, Chuka Umunna, was stating that BREXIT is so important that it should ride above party politics or personal ambition of Government members but every sentence he uttered was both party political and promotion of his own ambitions. During this week he has furthered both by stating that Parliament should have a legally binding vote on the BREXIT deal before it can be ratified – yet another attempt to thwart the process, and thus the will of the people. What a hypocrite. For balance I can also identify a Conservative MP, Anna Soubry who caused eyes to roll on the Conservative benches in the House of Commons this past Monday when she continued to vent her vehement attack on BREXIT and her party leaders. If she does not understand the principles of democracy why is she in Government?

Then we have the devastating miscalculation of the recent General Election. Short-sighted and blinkered arrogance in the extreme.  My thoughts on reading the Conservative Party (latterly described as Presidential) Election Manifesto are already published. Why did no one with political clout in the Conservative Party face down Teresa May and alert her to the inevitable consequences of such a poorly considered manifesto? I can suggest that study of the ‘Art of War’ by Sun Tzu is required study by her in future campaigns.

Of course, Jeremy Corbyn understood such consequences and saw an opportunity to seize power. He used the rise of a populist vote, especially with younger voters more consumed in their smart phones than in the real world. He promised them anything for their vote even though it was clear from the outset that none of these promises were remotely deliverable, as per populist socialist governments in South America and Africa. His was a particularly exaggerated socialist agenda that had none of the subtle argument proposed by the likes of Tony Blair. This was blatant abuse of process with the certain outcome of bankrupting UK plc. But why did these voters not see the inevitable outcome?

Today Jeremy Corbyn sees himself as the socialist saviour and although verbally supporting the BREXIT outcome he is using it as a party-political football in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives to seize power for himself. For the remoaners who think that BREXIT will be bad for the UK economy I ask them to consider the devastating consequences of a Corbyn led Government. The centre left government under Tony Blair left the Treasury coffers empty (as with all previous Labour Governments since WWII) – but this will be nothing compared with bankruptcy as Corbyn pursues a left socialist agenda. Perhaps his followers should consider the irony in my past blog ‘General Election 2015 – A Sorry Tale’.

The BREXIT campaign was bruising but, from my dialogue with people, they understood why they wanted to vote as they did irrespective of the blindingly aggressive rhetoric from both sides. My view is that the politicians were so outrageous that their words became an incoherent noise. The doom-and-gloom merchants such as David Cameron and George Osborne hid behind rigged outpourings from the likes of OECD and IMF clearly geared to frighten voters, but subsequently found to be completely false and unfounded. The UK economy has prospered post-BREXIT, and the EU is beginning to understand that THE UK is not about to bail out Europe for the third time in the past one hundred years. Teresa May has offered what the International Court of Arbitration would likely deem as legally obligated under the Lisbon Treaty. Any more requires valuable reciprocity from the EU. The second largest contributor to the EU is obviously a real loss to them, but they had the opportunity to address the needs of the UK people, but chose in their blind arrogance, to ignore such needs. Now they want to put valuable trade for both parties at risk to continue to prop up a failed system which is blatantly undemocratic. My instinct tells me that there will be substantial turmoil within the EU countries if trade is not maintained with the UK. The interview with the Foreign Minister of Spain, Alphonso Dastis, by Andrew Marr last Sunday was very revealing as he clearly stated that the close relationship between the UK and Spain pre-dates the EU. He argued that seventeen million UK visitors to Spain each year plus some 750k of UK citizens choosing to retire in Spain is not something they intend to put at risk.

So, what does all this say about our current form of democracy. We have politicians who choose the ignore the majority will of the people. We now have far too many career politicians who clearly lack the experience and wisdom needed to execute their office. We have an unelected powerhouse in Brussels who have no regard for the will of the people when it does not concur with their agenda. We have multiparty systems in many countries that govern by painful compromise (rather than strong leadership). We have too many politicians who have little regard for the ability of people to think for themselves and thus govern by fear tactics. And we have an electorate who feel disconnected from the process and thus disinterested. Instead of democratically thinking about an issue in the interest of all, they concern themselves with what matters only to themselves. Is democracy about to implode, and what phoenix will rise from the ashes?

 

 

BREXIT – 120 days on

univestBREXIT – 120 days on

It has been some 120 days post-Brexit, so where do we find ourselves when measured against the doom and gloom of the Remain campaign. We have a new PM, Teresa May who appears clear on what Brexit means, discovery that global organisations such as the IMF knowingly misled the British people, even the principal architect of the Eurozone claiming that it is now a ‘House of Cards’, and churlish self-interests trying to scupper Brexit with no regard for the democracy that they claim to cherish.

It is really sad for me to see that, amongst a significant number of people spanning all classes, there are elements of the British character that do no justice to our heritage of the UK great explorers and inventors that shaped this World of ours. I watched in disdain the current and excellent TV costume drama ‘Victoria’ recounting the trials and tribulations of Queen Victoria who reigned during the Industrial Revolution as scaremongers, vested interests, self-righteous, and ‘not-invented-here’ jealousy tried to stop the introduction of the steam locomotive. Thankfully, Prince Albert saved the day. Even today I hear eco-warriors stating that the Industrial Revolution was the beginning of the end of mankind, but where would these people, or even the World be without trains. India thrives on the railways, whereas Brazil, without much needed rail infrastructure, has serious transport and thus economic problems – look at the speed of rail infrastructure development in China.

Then I am reminded of the Neville Chamberlain pacifist era before the second world war when Winston Churchill, with his worldly experience, could see the ambitions of Hitler but, in spite of his fine rhetoric, could not persuade enough people that we needed to prepare ourselves for the inevitable. Indeed, according to Boris Johnson in his captivating book ‘The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History’, had the war been delayed by some two weeks Churchill would already have been hounded out of office!

We are told that we must learn from the past, but do we? During the referendum debate we had the David Cameron, George Osborne and Nick Clegg elite, all from privileged schooling, all career politicians with ideologies not supported by any worldly experience, and easily persuaded by more scurrilous and self-serving influences, preaching doom and gloom if we did not stay part of the EU project. They rallied any vested interest they could find including the IMF, the OECD, and President Obama – an embarrassing chapter for all of them. But history will not record any of them as good, let alone great politicians. David Cameron was clear in his Bloomberg address that if the UK did not get significant Treaty changes for the UK then he would vote out, yet like Chamberlain he returned from Berlin with a worthless piece of paper. He will be remembered as someone who readily changed his mind on substantial matters – not good leadership. But he has realised the errors of his ways and will fade quietly away. Osborne still finds occasion to try to placate his ego, and Clegg is now trying to rally support for a blatant counter-offensive to Brexit on the basis that people do not know what Brexit means. Let me assure him that the core ‘middle-England blue-blooded Brits’ that always save the day in times of need know precisely what it means – a clean exit from the EU in all respects, returning to a Sovereign State, just like most other countries in the World. As has been shown since Brexit, the UK is a major player in this World, and when we sneeze the World coughs. The EU needs the UK far more than the UK needs the EU.

So what has happened since Brexit. I would suggest that the most significant outcome is the clear demonstration of how the elite politics of today is so out of touch with reality, as is being played out in the USA today. What did go on behind closed doors that caused Cameron to accept that the UK should be sacrificed for ‘the greater good of Europe’? How many more times does the UK have to make significant sacrifices for Europe before Europe (mainly Germany) learns from it?

Let me take some words from a Telegraph article summarising a post-Brexit report from the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). This report goes above the head of the managing director, Christine Lagarde. It answers solely to the board of executive directors, and those from Asia and Latin America are clearly incensed at the way EU insiders used the Fund to rescue their own rich currency union and banking system. It states:

‘The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions.

It describes a “culture of complacency”, prone to “superficial and mechanistic” analysis, and traces a shocking break-down in the governance of the IMF, leaving it unclear who is ultimately in charge of this extremely powerful organisation.’

The IEO Report states that since 2011 some 80% of all IMF lending was secretly used to support the Euro – not within the mandate of the IMF, and why Asia and Latin America are so incensed. Add to this the recent publication by Prof Otmar Issing, the first chief economist of the ECB and principal architect of the Euro, in which he states that the rules laid down for the Euro have been so debased by politicians that the currency, and thus the Eurozone, is but a ‘House of Cards’ waiting to collapse. Thus the desperate need to keep the fastest growing economy in the Western World, the UK, inside the EU, not least because of the unique capital raising power of the City of London – thus the lies to the British public by both the IMF and the OECD during the referendum campaign.

By far the biggest everyday loss to the EU is the City of London. With the City inside the EU it could claim to be the most significant financial power on the international stage. Without it the Eurozone does not even have the capacity to clear its own currency. The EU desperately needs the capital raising powers of the City. All of this posturing regarding passporting can be put into perspective by ING announcing last week that it is moving some 40 of its prominent traders from two locations within the EU to London. The worst case scenario is we will return to the days before passporting whereby, under the rules that international banks can only engage in business in countries in which they have a physical presence, banks will re-establish little more than a rep office through which transactions will be directed to London. As for moving banking to Frankfurt and/or Paris it should be noted that during my more than 35 years in the City this has been muted on a number of occasions. Paris is a non-starter for a number of technical reasons, and Frankfurt for even more including that no self-respecting high flier banker would consider living there.

As for corporate business I think that the recent announcement by Apple, the largest company in the World, that it is moving and consolidation its European headquarters in London, with all of the tax implications included, states the blindingly obvious – London is the gateway to Europe.

In a recent French Presidential Campaign speech by Nicolas Sarkozy he clearly stated that his first day in office (if elected) would be spent in Berlin (note: not Brussels) putting a new EU Treaty together that would address the concerns of the UK to encourage them to stay within the EU. He knows that there will be revolution in France if the farmers got even a whisper that tariff barriers were to be imposed on the UK.

In Germany we also have elections on the horizon. I am certain that the elite of Germany will resign themselves to the inevitable Brexit and thus quietly encourage election results that will ensure that no harm comes to the valuable existing trading relations with the UK.

The principle voices of Angela Merkel in Brussels, Donald Tusk, Martin Schulz, and Jean-Claude Junker, are synonymous with the problems faced by the EU. On the one hand they are stating that the EU will survive Brexit. On the other that are issuing instructions to member states to clamp down on rising nationalism.

The good news is that GBP has depreciated from its over-valued level by some 17% causing the UK Stock Market to regain some of its lost value over recent years, and provide the stimulus for the return for a much increased manufacturing base – jobs, prosperity, less dependency on imports. It should be remembered that Germany pushed through the Eurozone project to devalue the over-inflated Deutshemark by some 30% – great for Germany, but a disaster for most other members.

This devaluation will mean price increases to the UK consumer of imported goods and thus stimulate much needed, but controlled inflation reducing the need for QE and restoring interest rates to more normal economic levels. Some of this increase could be artificial as EU Governments put pressure on their major suppliers to increase prices to the UK as per the much publicised Unilever to Tesco increases which resulted in an embarrassing climb-down by Unilever. The real price increases will put upward pressure on wage demands – good for the workers who generate the wealth but contained to 2% pa or less wage growth over recent years, but not so good for fat executives who have enriched themselves with wage growth of around 10% pa during the same period. Also we can be competitive manufacturers and return to the days of ‘Buy British’. We can even return to eating our own delicious apples, currently outlawed by the EU to force import from the likes of France. The UK Government could easily buffer the increased price of fuel and energy (increases not EU related) by reducing, or indeed eliminating all of the absurd anti-competitive eco taxes on UK energy prices.

Trading with the World, including Europe will certainly not get worse, but is likely to improve. The intransigence of the EU Commission regarding trade with the EU is legion – ask the Americans. Our global relationships will prosper far more after the dust of Brexit has settled.

The issues we face today are the posturing, petulance, grandstanding, etc by both a dying EU and those die-hard remainers in the UK who have jettisoned democracy in favour of their own self-interests. This causes turbulence in the markets, no doubt exacerbated by the more influential remainers. The professional financial markets love such turbulence as they use it to generate good profits. The losers are the general public in whose lives the media relish creating uncertainty, and which impacts their cost of living resulting in understandable protest. How many media outlets have directly associated recent fuel price increases with Brexit? Oil prices are recovering from two years of global turmoil, and should settle around US$60 per barrel. The UK has a much needed currency devaluation regardless of Brexit. De facto prices will increase from their extraordinary lows over recent months regardless of Brexit. I can remember when oil prices were US$16 per barrel, and more recently US$120 per barrel – but neither to do with the EU or Brexit.

Brexit has not yielded doom and gloom, not even a technical recession. The UK is now projected as the fastest growing Western economy. Just as with the resistance to the steam locomotive in Victorian times it is time to ignore the doomsayers and grasp the opportunities that now present themselves so that, as with the proliferation of railways, the UK will again rise be a major and great player in this World in its own name.

 

BREXIT – In this week of tribute to the Bard

Shakespeare lives here

In tribute to the greatest Bard

Compose some lines, it will be hard,

But once again, we are faced

With treachery, to be embraced

EU reform was his spoken mandate

Failed; now he moves to collaborate

Heed well the falseness of his word

The fear to force you into herd.

 

Those who claim to fight our case

Have failed, but want that we remain in place

What do they have us to believe?

That they knowest best; are we naïve?

EU citizens with their feet do vote

The UK is the place they bloat

We would like to welcome those

Who satisfy our needs and goals.

 

Rule Britannia, let not you fall,

Remember all you do enjoy

May this fair land we love so well

In dignity and freedom dwell

Be remembered those who gave their future

To make this nation free to prosper

Let not your spirit be subdued

By fear of raging platitude.

 

Let’s not to foreigner’s bow

Their voices hollow, not in favour thou

They would not heed to what they say

So why would we bend to their way?

We are made of sterner stuff

With resolve and fortitude, we rebuff

We are strong; not slave to obey

So bid them well, be on your way.

 

Compare ye not with a lesser realm

Who have not our powers to overwhelm

Our omnipotence they do not share

Nor standing and heritage to declare

When we do call, our voice will be heard

They dare not our call to be spurred

They will not treat us with disdain

Lest Europe will despair again.

 

Our past doth show our stealth and pride

Thus let not our omnipotence be denied

And think of England’s pleasant land

Is not for those of foreign land

Who wish to smite our honours past

And crush our national interest

Shout it loud, Britons awake

Lest those abroad your life will take.

 

So harken all you Brits, be true

To what it is you need to do

To save this land, its history share

With those you are yet to bear

Let not your offspring be denied

The hopes and dreams for which men died

Or be defined by those abroad

Whose plan for us is truly flawed.

 

Remember to the words we sang

When faced with that beleaguered land

Vera Lynn, our spirits raised

Again we showed; our courage blazed

‘There’ll always be an England

And England shall be free

If England means as much to you

As England means to me.’

 

And in the words of the great Bard himself:

This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle,
this earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
this other Eden, demi-paradise,
This fortress built by Nature for herself
Against infection and the hand of war,
This happy breed of men, this little world,
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall
Or as a moat defensive to a house,
Against the envy of less happier lands,
This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England.

Shakespeare’s Richard II

Is Putin really orchestrating the disintegration of Europe?

univestIs Putin really orchestrating the disintegration of Europe?

I have just finished reading a report on Bloomberg News titled ‘From Rape Claim to Brexit, Putin Machine Tears at Europe’s Seams’ by Arne Delfs and Henry Meyer citing incidents such as the ‘Lisa Affair’ in Germany as evidence that Putin is orchestrating the disintegration of Europe. This claim is worth a little exploration.

There is no doubt that the paranoia that is Putin sees a strong Europe as a direct threat to Russia, especially along its borders – Ukraine being a prime example. As Russia is not in a position to rapidly grow in spite of its energy reserves then his strategy must be to weaken his perceived enemy – classic Sun Tzu. We have also witnessed his desire to be seen as a major influence in the World with his intervention in Syria. So can he manipulate the disintegration of Europe?

The evidence presented in the Bloomberg report would suggest that he can, and indeed, is exploiting the weakness in the EU system. But is he a primary mover, or just having a little mischievous fun exploiting the clear fault lines in the EU model as retaliation for the embargo imposed on Russia for past mischief?

For anyone to exploit a large system such as the EU in this way there must be inherent weaknesses that can be exploited. We saw during the Ukraine crisis that the response by the West had to be tempered because of the overwhelming reliance on energy supplies from Russia by Germany (some 84% against the UK 4%). Why would a so-called major economy allow itself to engage in an energy policy which left them so vulnerable? Why should the West allow such an economy to influence its response?

What I have observed over many years is that every time a closed system tries to impose itself on other systems the oppressor fails, e.g. Germany on Europe, Russia on USSR. Even the Romans, during their expansionism, knew that that had to befriend the conquered and only impose changes regarding the needs of Rome in exchange for protection. They knew that they could not possibly hold the line of their empire if they tried to completely impose their will over the oppressed. Indeed, they used a philosophy that made it an honour to elevate the compliant to the status of a Roman citizen – probably the first peoples honours system.

Putin appears to be exploiting the clear divisions in the EU regarding the attempted imposition of the German way, albeit under the Brussels umbrella, on the other EU members. Of course, as with all such closed States, they believe that they have a successful model which they would like to share (impose) on others to allow them to indulge in the prosperity of their system. I have argued in previous blogs that there are inherently fatal flaws in the incestuous German closed system akin to Japan in the 1980’s and thus will ultimately fail. The nearest closed system to that of Germany within the EU is France albeit that the closed system in France consists of nationalised industries and banks – the topical example being EdF – and France is technically bankrupt.

But Germany has shown itself to be flawed, notably in its handling of the refugee crisis. Their double-edged sword of appearing to act with compassion as a cover for their desperate need for some one million skilled people to replace the erosion of its own workforce since 2012 through emigration to the likes of the UK, Switzerland, the USA, and Australia, has backfired. The Lisa Affair appears to be a ploy to further add to the woes of Angela Merkel as she loses popularity as the usually compliant German population now regularly take to the streets in defiance.

So, assuming Putin is playing games, should we be concerned? Politicians play games most of the time. Look at the upcoming intervention of the USA in the BREXIT debate. Is the USA really concerned about the UK, or their own influence in the EU for which they use the UK as their gateway? Would the USA ever consider surrendering any form of sovereignty to another nation to engage with it? I fully understand both the short-term geo-political and geo-economic consequences of a BREXIT – and it is not good. But everyone appears to be asking the UK to sacrifice itself for the sake of global stability. Why don’t these interlopers focus their concerns towards the mandarins in Brussels, and who could still save the day if vital EU reform is agreed? How many more times in history do the British people have to sacrifice themselves to save the World? If Putin wants to play games with Germany to accelerate realisation then so be it. If he is successful, the unintended consequences (on his part) might be the tonic that Europe so desperately needs.

Once upon a time ……. In Europe

univestOnce upon a time ……. In Europe

Once upon a time there was a fairy kingdom that lived inside a place called Brussels and was surrounded on all four sides by a land called Europe containing the Outer Realms. Brussels is aligned with another kingdom called Strasbourg. Both are inhabited by disembodied heads that speak from the walls of bars, and with yet another closed kingdom called Berlin, the abode of Brunnhilde and her Only Party. These Kingdoms are in eternal political syzygy and speak not with the people of the surrounding lands, of whom they know nothing. The following is a chronicle of what could befell them, and why.

After years of peace, the Kingdoms were taken greatly aback by the rise of the BREXIT Monster, their surprise being proof that they know nothing of the Outer Realms. They know nothing for good reasons, of which there are two. The first is that they pass their lives with each other and among each other and talking to each other and writing about each other and reading about each other behind the high walls of their Kingdoms. In organs of their own Insider community they endlessly write stories of the form ‘A soothsayer in Brussels replies to what some other sayer of sooth in Strasbourg said about yet another’s attack on someone else’.

They all dwell in monasteries called the EU Commission and the EU Council, where they are indoctrinated that they are the wisest of men, and inerrant. They have no idea that they are so hated in the strange lands without their walls, which on their maps are drawn as fog with notations such as ‘Here dwelleth dragons’. They do not know that there are people who agreed not with them. Were they not right about all things?

The other reason for their puzzlement is a powerful spell called ’Political Correctness’. This strong magic prevents the outlanders from saying anything that the Three Kingdoms do not want to hear. Anyone who engages incantations are branded slurs, which are truthful thoughts about sacred tribes, or who say inappropriate things about a certain little country whose only importance is being that it produces vast wealth for the Kingdoms, is now thrown into durance vile. Thus, the Three Kingdoms never hear anything they don’t like, and so believe that almost everyone without the walls loves them. They have scarce an idea what furies are roiling and boiling and stirring under the surface of the Outer Realms.

Now, until the BREXIT Monster appeared, the Three Kingdoms were ruled by a pseudo-democracy of one Bicephalous Party with two names. The Only Party consists of blackguards and quislings and pickpockets bought and paid for by the plutocratic oligarchy of large corporations, and the very rich. These tell the two halves of the One Party what to do. Every four years there is played a great tournament in which candidates of the Two Names of the One Party engaged in the most savage combat imaginable.  This is to distract the people outside the walls in the Outer Realms. Afterwards, nothing changes and all goes on as before though the division of the spoils may shift a little.

And in their ignorance and pride, the Three Kingdoms now engender a monster called BREXIT, and it has bitten them.

The Only Party always controls the villains because it controls the choice of pretenders to the throne. A pretender gains the Presidency by paying homage to the Only Party, and the rich who provide that money controls, as vassals, those who accept it. The pretenders are as straw and melons sold in a market.

Furthermore, the scribes and oracles of the Kingdoms say aloud only those things that are meet for the surrounding serfs to hear.  The persistent spell of Political Correctness amounts to a societal mute button and prevents the Holy Orders within the Three Kingdoms from noticing what stirs without.

Until the BREXIT Monster came raging, slouching toward Bethlehem, with which the Kingdoms confuse themselves.

And there is fright, and desperation, and rending of teeth, and gnashing of hair, for many are the rice bowls threatened.

The darkest of horrors is that the serfs might come to choose the manner of their government. For long years, the Bicephalous Party had presided over that most desirable form of democracy in which the people have no power. This laudable state they have maintained by never talking about anything of substance, such as unending wars in remote lands beyond the edges of the maps, or the importation of slaves from curious and unwholesome countries, or the manufacturers of all things by foreign dwarves, or the satiate life of the Insiders within the kingdoms.

A great broil now ensues. The people of the little country see for the first time a chance to manage their destinies and rise up for the BREXIT Monster.  Inside Brussels, the Wise and Good – for do they not so denominate themselves? – are greatly astonished. ‘What manner of wight can this be?’ they ask in wonder. They say that the BREXIT Monster is beguiling fools, the cracked, and those who represented the worst in Europe. And the scribes and oracles are sore afraid, for most of the outlying populace appear to belong to these tribes.

One of the Two Names of the Only Party have sent forth their dreadful creature, Brunnhilde, to fight in single combat with the BREXIT Monster. Her very visage turns men to stone, it is said. She is held to be of one blood with Boadica, Jeanne d’Arc, and Lucretia Borgia.

The Three Kingdoms are at one with her, as she has corrupted them to her ways, being mendacious, and ugly, as well as suffering coughing fits and dizzy spells. Surely, say the scribes and oracles, any monster must fly screaming from her mere presence.

Yet it seems that BREXIT is no common monster. Every time it is beset by the scribes and oracles of Brussels, it grows stronger, and a sulfurous smoke breathes from its mouth. With drawn swords the BREXIT Monster and the crumbling ruin yclept Brunnhilde circle each other.

And beyond the parapets and crenellations of the three Kingdoms the sky grows darker. Inside Brussels and in Strasbourg, the disembodied heads rail and rage, but with every blast, the helots joint the BREXIT Monster in larger numbers, for they hate the Insiders. In Berlin, the half-educated narcissists say ever more stupid things, but these have not their usual effect.

In their pride, the Three Kingdoms had engendered Nemesis, and they watch in terror behind the ramparts as the sky grows darker and strange shapes twist in the looming clouds as the BREXIT Monster strides ever nearer, breathing fire.

 

BREXIT – What a difference a week makes

univestBREXIT – What a difference a week makes

The past week has yielded so many interesting events that I have shelved my scheduled blog to consider the potential impacts to the whole EU debate.

In no particular order let us start with the UK Budget speech given by George Osbourne last Wednesday. All sounded good with much bravado albeit two of his three fiscal rules were already in shatters. But the economy is growing so such rules are only political rhetoric. However, he used this platform to make a clear statement that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had provided evidence that UK exit from the EU would damage the UK economy in the short-term. This statement clearly aggrieved the OBR as, by tea time, they had completely refuted his representations as they only provided (conveniently selected?) views provided by third parties.

Then he expounded the view that we were all in this together as he slashed corporate taxes at the same time as slashing benefit payments (some £4 billion) to the most disadvantaged. Whereas there is no doubt that the welfare budget in the UK does need to be reined in, it cannot be achieved merely by setting arbitrary limits and crossing out figures on a spreadsheet with a complete disregard for social justice. Again, by the end of the week, these welfare cuts had diluted from hard cuts, to a discussion, to kicking into the long grass, to being scrapped with the very public resignation of the Work & Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith who gave an impassioned account of his position on the Sunday morning Andrew Marr show. Let us not forget that this happened to Osbourne in his last budget as well.

Also, during his budget speech, he confirmed that the continued refusal by the EU to relax VAT rules to allow tampons to be zero rated, the so-called tampon tax (some £500 million pa), would result in the taxes collected continuing to be distributed to various women-based charities. The following day David Cameron went to an EU Summit meeting in Brussels regarding the important refugee crisis. Apparently, during a coffee break, all 28 EU leaders agreed to relax the EU VAT rules. Clearly not planned. Has Europe realised that BREXIT is gaining support? How many more rabbits will be drawn from EU hats between now and 23rd June?

It was interesting to tour the Highlands of Scotland a few weeks before the Scottish Independence referendum to test my view that Scotland would be stronger in the Union, and thus the vote would be to stay part of the UK. Having purposely stayed in B&B and small privately owned hotels it was interesting to speak privately with the Scottish people about their thoughts. In those 8 days only one person clearly stated that they wanted independence. Much was offered by the UK Government in fear of the noise by those shouting ‘independence’. Had they copied my trip they would determine that no deals were necessary. Everyone else was keeping their thoughts to themselves because of what they were seeing in places like Glasgow where Alex Salmond’s equivalent of Hitler’s brown shirt nationalistic youth movement were intimidating those who openly wanted to remain with the UK. Come the day the silent majority, proud of their heritage within the UK, prevailed. I would therefore suggest that rabbits from the EU, at this late stage, will not work. Indeed, I think the canny Scots are likely to deal Nicola Sturgeon a blow in the EU referendum. Ouch, Nicola.

Then we have the third fiscal rule imposed upon himself regarding converting the current budget deficit into a surplus by the end of this parliament. The general view on this pronouncement is that he needs a major event, such as an exit from the EU, to provide a credible excuse for missing this target, as most surely will be the case. But not because of misguided ambition as a budget surplus should be the goal for fiscal prudence, but the target has to be reasonably achievable with a balanced approach. Ouch for political ambition.

And Peter Mandelson amused me by suggesting that if Maggie Thatcher was still in charge that she would vote to stay in. Having known her views, I’m sure that she found the surrender of so much UK sovereignty to the EU by Tony Blair in her final years as depressing, and would certainly have returned from negotiations with a credible reform deal before even thinking of such a stand to remain a member. It was also interesting that Mandelson had conveniently forgotten that he proposed we join the Euro. Beware of the so-called Prince of Darkness.

Then I read a City Comment in the London Evening Standard by a journalist with the name of Anthony Hilton. Firstly, he was abusing a quote by a long deceased industrialist, Sir Arnold Hall, “What problem do we have which is so serious that (BREXIT) could possibly provide the answer”? Then he used comparators that demonstrated his armchair approach to journalism. For example, he states that the German economy can operate very well within the EU, so why can’t the UK? If he remotely understood the difference between the German and the UK economies he would understand the answer. Whereas the UK sits with the USA economy as an outsider, or open structure, the German economy is quite the opposite as an insider, or closed structure. Ownership of German companies is protected with incestuous patrimonial linkages between German banks and companies, with preferential proxy votes and cross-shareholdings. Foreign ownership of a German company is so rare that it is major news. An example of the vast difference this closed structure reveals can be illustrated by reference to the steel dumping by China. The incestuous linkages in Germany mean that steel users (car production construction, and other major engineering companies) can be compelled to buy from German steel manufacturers rather than buying cheaper steel being dumped by China. This is protectionism. Our open system cannot compel our companies to use British steel. So when our steel companies suffer the impact of dumping we can do nothing about it because it would require Government intervention – not allowed by the EU. And will Germany fully support an anti-dumping campaign against China – not likely as China is an important market for Germany exports. We should also remember that Germany makes the trade rules within the EU to favour Germany, as with the Euro fiscal policy.

He further cites Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance Minister, and one of the nationalistic dinosaurs standing in the way of the much needed radical EU reform, who stated at the recent BCC conference that, after BREXIT, any trade deal with the EU would be conditional on maintaining free movement, and continuation of some form of payment into Brussels. This is typical scaremonger nonsense. Do the USA, or even Canada suffer such impositions in their trade agreements? The German Foreign Minister was far more realistic. He endorsed the view that a free trade deal would be agreed within days of BREXIT irrespective of EU political views not least because the German Government would be bombarded by their major companies and banks because of the high level of exports to the UK, not to mention that imports from Germany to the UK are significantly larger than UK exports to Germany.

I could further dismantle his arguments, but would suggest that he listens to someone like Sir Peter Hargreaves, the co-founder of the very successful Hargreaves Lansdown investment manager, who has a real-world experience and suggest that not only would the UK be better off outside of the EU, but such a stimulus would re-energise the British people to take more pride in the UK, buy British, and put the ‘Great’ back into Britain. For certain the UK has problems in productivity, poor venture investment, and lack of manufacturing. Perhaps a refusal by the EU to provide goods will stimulate the UK to make their own – a boost to employment, and needed reduction in the balance of payments – all positive. We could also relabel our much heralded sparkling wine as Champagne (as do the Americans), retain our traditions of sausages, Cornish pasties, pork pies et al without meddling interference in the British way of life from Brussels.

My final observation for today is the visit by Obama to Cuba. The opportunity to re-engage with Cuba has been staring at Europe for some years, with the doors open to engage. Whilst visiting a few years ago on an exploratory trip ‘America’ still invoked hatred with the Cuban people because of the Bay of Pigs incident. The opportunities for European businesses was considerable, as was the opportunity to substantially re-establish original European businesses in sugar, and other agri-products, as well as new off-shore oil & gas finds. The inward looking nature of the EU has surrendered this opportunity to the USA who will now move in and, no doubt, ignore repatriation of former European assets. The British understand the importance of such opportunities because of their historic trans-global, outward view of the world, in stark contrast to the introspective view of the EU.

Let us hope that the coming weeks are somewhat quieter, and less damaging.

 

 

BREXIT – What Deal?

univestBREXIT – What Deal?

When David Cameron elected to engage in a referendum regarding UK membership of the EU his pronouncement was that he would seek much needed fundamental reform to the EU, or support an ‘out’ vote. These reforms included substantial issues such as curtailing the role of the European Court of Human Rights in UK determinations, to scrap the Human Rights Act, reclaiming sovereignty for both our parliament and our judicial system, and to have sanction over immigration into the UK.

What he achieved is zero reform; only some tweaking at the fringes which, until written into Treaty are no more than what the Courts call mitigating circumstances in determinations, the existing Treaty being the fundamental basis on which they will make determinations. Few, if any of the EU leaders who agreed this tweaking will be in office when the next Treaty is discussed, and the European Parliament can most certainly vote down any, if not all of the concessions. Thus why the ‘deal’ is already in the dim past of the EU referendum debate.

As a trained negotiator I have an unease about the lack of any substance to the ‘deal’ as Germany most certainly needs to keep us within. Did Cameron not have the heart for such a negotiation? Is there a deal behind the scenes regarding the future of Cameron? Was he the wrong man to negotiate? History may tell us the answer, but until then we must accept that the ‘deal’ does not remotely meet with the initial basis of the referendum.

I am not going to debase my discussion by using speculative monetary values, or the use and abuse of statistics. As it is clear to see in the media the business and financial community are divided on opinion based on their specific vested interests – thus irrelevant. As argued in previous blogs this debate is about the future of the people in the UK. All of the economic and political arguments pale against the right outcome for the British way of life. Business and finance will continue regardless of the choice made in June. As one dear lady so elegantly put it in a Jeremy Vine interview last week, ‘so-called experts built the Titanic, but not the Ark’.

I do not believe the people of the UK will engage with the current political and business debate. So let us bring the argument down to a reasonable comparator argument that anyone can understand. Our base will be a recently new golf club where the charter debenture holders (the people who essentially financed the building of the club) sought preferential treatment as part of their contribution. This creates a two-tiered system of membership even though much of their initial investment has been redeemed through subsequent debenture sales. What will happen over time is policy committee members will change, and privileges of the charter members will become fuzzy, and erode, until they have no more privileges than any other member, i.e. harmonising rights to all members. This is what will most certainly happen in the EU. Fuzzy memberships such as Norway, the UK, and Switzerland will be tolerated in the short-term, but over time the boundaries will be eroded until they are eradicated. In Political Risk parlance this is called creeping expropriation. If the UK elects to remain an EU member it will most certainly not retain any special status over time.

The generally accepted current situation of the EU is fragile, and in need of serious reform. So what is the future if the UK votes to remain within – uncertainty. What is the future if the UK votes to leave the EU – uncertainty. So what is the difference – control of the uncertainty. The UK is not a Switzerland or a Norway. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world – and carries much power and influence in the world in its own right (as endorsed by the German Foreign Minister on Radio 4).

Let us look at uncertainty, again in an easily understandable form. Uncertainty is as much part of life as day and night. The obvious relevant examples are life-changing decisions to get married, have children, or God forbid – divorce. They all require uncertain adaptability, but are all undertaken with the hope to a better future. For a while they can be a struggle, but the outcome is generally worth it. Ask any woman who has gone through labour, but yielded a healthy baby – the pain of labour is soon forgotten. A BREXIT includes a 2 year ‘grandfather clause’ where all of our existing relationships with the EU continue giving time to agree alternatives such as free trade agreements. The UK will see some immediate benefits in that the irksome elements of the Human Rights Act can be ignored, immigration can be brought under control, and our transport infrastructure can quickly progress without the interminable interference of Brussels. Therefore, our uncertainty has a short-term safety net which negates the scaremonger argument that the short-term will be turbulent; but does have some valuable upsides. The UK successfully recovered from 2 World wars without help, so a relatively simple exit from the EU should be a breeze. I would suggest that most people will not feel any immediate difference.

There is one element of the uncertainty that I have yet to see any comment. What is likely to happen to the EU without the UK as a member. There are a number of relevant uncertainties. Other net contributor countries could see the UK exit as a sign that the current EU model is really broke, and thus elect to do the same – especially as the EU will have to increase contributions of other member States to fill the vacuum left by the considerable contribution by the UK. The right-wing elements of France could rise and depose the French Government. France has much to lose by a UK exit. Where were these concerns in the deal negotiations – or wasn’t the threat of the UK leaving a serious consideration?

If Germany can find the means to support the Eurozone then it will more rapidly consolidate its hold over the Euro countries – and the people of the UK will be thankful that they departed. Of course we still have the Greek issue which will most certainly be a thorn in the side of Germany – will this lead to conflict within the Eurozone? We have seen that the poor response by Germany to the economic situation in the Eurozone when they refused quantitative easing some 4 years ago. The too little – too late plan by the ECB yesterday was greeted with derision by the markets.

The UK has a proud history as the banking centre of the world boasting excellence in financial capability (even when Labour are in Government), and the ability of the UK to rise from both the irresponsible spending of the last Labour Government and the financial crisis lays testimony to the intelligent and speedy response to such events. Should this be sacrificed to the incapable Eurozone mandarins who clearly do not have the experience, or the global market understanding?

In summary BREXIT will yield uncertainty whichever way it goes. Therefore, the issue is whether or not the people of the UK want control over such uncertainty, or do they want to surrender decisions to Brussels – unaccountable to the people of the UK, and not so interested in preserving the British way of life.