Category Archives: investment Banking

‘The Destruction of the UK Economy’ by Starmer and Reeves

Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves have announced their brave new world of far-left socialism. What will be the impact of trying to tax the rich and business to engage in unaffordable authoritarian social engineering and appease their Union paymasters, and Ed Milliband’s delusional net-zero energy policy, certain to destroy the UK economy? Milliband behaves like someone with a new credit card, maxing it out in a frenzy with no possibility of being able to repay. Let us illustrate this in terms Labour supporters should understand. It’s a sobering message.

Suppose that once a week, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to £100. If they paid their bill the way Labour expects to collect our taxes, it would go something like this:

  • The first four men (the poorest; out of work, zero hours, etc) would pay nothing
  • The fifth (labourer) would pay £1
  • The sixth (skilled worker) would pay £3
  • The seventh (professional) would pay £7
  • The eighth (management) would pay £12
  • The ninth (executive) would pay £18
  • And the tenth man (richest) would pay £59

The ten men drink at the bar every week and seemed quite happy with the arrangement until, one day, the owner caused them a dilemma. “Since minimum wage and corporate taxes have increased, energy subsidies have increased energy costs, and the likely costs of new employee rights” he said, “I have to increase the cost of your weekly beer by £20.” Drinks for the ten men would now cost £120.

They realise that £20 divided by five is £4 but if added to everybody’s share then not only would the first five men be drinking for free, but the sixth man would have his contribution increased by 133%!

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way they pay their taxes. The first four men are unaffected; they will still drink for free. But what about the other six men – the paying customers? The fifth member was employed by a small business which could not cope with the increases so was made redundant, thus joined the first four and paid nothing. How could the remaining five divide the £20 increase so that everyone would pay his fair share?

The bar owner suggested that it would be fairer to increase each man’s bill according to the principle of the new tax system and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.

The result was that the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (a 100% saving).

  • The sixth man now paid £4 instead of £3 (a 33% rise)
  • The seventh man now paid £9 instead of £7 (a 28% rise)
  • The eighth man now paid £15 instead of £12 (a 25% rise)
  • The ninth man now paid £22 instead of £18 (a 22% rise)
  • And the tenth man now paid £70 instead of £59 (a 16% rise)

Each of the last five is worse off than before with the first five now drinking for free.

But, once outside the bar, the paying men began to compare their rises.

“I paid 33% extra; double the tenth man,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, “his share was much less than mine!”

“That’s true!” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he only pay 16% when I paid 28%? The wealthy get all the breaks!”

“Wait a minute,” yelled the first five men in unison, “we can’t get a job because of this new system. This new  Labour system exploits the poor!”

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up demanding a greater contribution from him.

The following week the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important – they didn’t have enough money between them to pay even half of the bill! Three months later the pub closed because taxes made it no longer viable as a business.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the declared Labour policy will work. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally consider their position. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just might not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier, and take their business with them. This happened in the late 1970s when higher rate tax rates were 83%. Didn’t work then; won’t work now.

Lest we forget when Labour lost the General Election to the Conservatives in 2010. Liam Bryne, Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, left a note for his successor stating ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ This has been the case with every Labour Government since the war.

Any political promises more than 5 years away are pure fantasy because they exceed the term of a Government and thus why spades of such promises are put out there to woo the gullible. Even the air you breath leaves you exposed to pay taxes. Anything for free will be abused, as we see in the NHS. Someone has to pay at the end of the day.

There is also an assumption by Starmer/Reeves that the financial community will agree to fund an additional £55 billion p.a. for 10 years – not likely, not least because much of this funding is not directly linked to increased productivity. A more likely consequence of a Starmer Government will be a downgrade in the UK credit rating which would increase the cost of any available borrowing thus negating the Reeves argument that borrowing will be cheap. The more modest extra £20 billion p.a. for 5 years spending pledged by the Conservatives will raise eyebrows in the financial markets; even with a majority Conservative Government.

It is only possible to spend if you have a strong underlying economy. Without the rich, and wealthy businesses to provide jobs and generate profits upon which the Government depends to accumulate tax revenues, there is no money to spend.

Both Dry AMD and Neovascular (Wet) AMD can be Reversed

Over the past 4 years I have completely reversed dry AMD (Age-related Macular Degeneration) to visual acuity (Snellen) 6/6 both eyes in 8 months from diagnosis (there is only the slightest evidence of drusen at high magnification) and in 2023 have near reversed neovascular AMD in my left eye (6/18 in January and now better than 6/7.5 with an ever-shrinking reservoir of fluid, and RE: 6/5) with no evidence of any adverse vascular activity just 10 months from diagnosis – all without medical treatment. It is significant that during the neovascular recovery both eyes are shown to have profited from the recovery strategy. Both of these AMD events were the direct result of poor/inappropriate medical interventions.

We hear much about the increase of AMD (Age-related Macular Degeneration), both dry and to a lesser extent neovascular, in the population across the Western World. We also hear that great advances are in process for treatments such as anti-VEGF. There are also some ophthalmic professionals who now state that poor diet and health are contributors to AMD. AMD is also referred to as a disease, and inherited genetics is also cited as a contributor. But have the ophthalmic profession completely misunderstood what actually causes AMD and that it can be avoided and, indeed repaired if caught early enough.

In recent medical papers and YouTube presentations I noted some ophthalmic specialists identify nutrition and health playing a significant role in AMD but, as with most ophthalmic specialists, they cannot resist medical treatment of the eye (effect) rather than addressing the cause.

As a former nuclear scientist with much exposure to the medical research profession, and in the past four years suffered from both types of AMD caused by poor/inappropriate medical interventions, have fully recovered from dry AMD and near full recovery from neovascular AMD using my own knowledge and research. I will share my journey with readers to completely redefine macular degeneration as health-related and, as such, eminently reversable without medical treatment if caught early enough.

My journey suggests that the age-related part of AMD is only an indication that, as we age, our lungs can become contaminated with atmospheric pollutants restricting the amount of actived oxygen extracted from the air we breathe, and an increase in the pH level in our digestive system meaning we no longer extract the nutrients we need. However, both can be easily corrected which suggests the eyes can be restored to good health. Therefore, I would suggest that HMD (Health-related Macular Degeneration) would be a more appropriate label.

I was faced on both AMD presentations by the senior specialist in AMD at Moorfields Eye Hospital in London with the prognosis that there was no way back, and my condition would deteriorate over time to blindness. Treatment such as anti-VEGF would slow the process but not repair the damage. This attitude appalled me and started a journey of discovery combing as many medical libraries as possible in the World seeking papers and data to help me understand AMD. The result of this research revealed a truly diverse range of thinking amongst professionals with the vast majority looking no further than the eyes for answers.

The eye perfectly lends itself to Black Box analysis as a complex muscle with one input and one output with a direct correlation of output being a function of input. Study found that the eye requires an extensive range of nutrients as well as the need for more Active Oxygen (defined as H3O2) than any other organ in the body in order to function correctly and stay healthy. Thus, diet and health are important to satisfy the inputs required. But this assumes much about normal digestive and lung function.

Reversing Dry AMD (8-month process)

My journey started with dry AMD after heart surgery in April 2019 where an over-zealous surgeon tightly sutured so much of my soft tissue that my left lung was barely functional for some 7-months. I have already written about this journey in a previous blog ‘Covid-19 and Airnergy+ Active Oxygen’.

Reversing Neovascular AMD (10-month process)

In November 2022 I underwent a Pfizer Covid booster jab to allow me to travel having previously undertaking two AstraZeneca injections for the same reason. The adverse impact of this vaccine occurred within one minute in the form of palpitations. Thereafter my health noticeably deteriorated culminating in a neovascular event in my left eye in January 2023. In its simplest terms the brain triggers vascular activity to support a recognised lack of nutrients to the eyes.

It took a request from me to secure comprehensive well-being blood tests. The initial response to these was ‘unremarkable’. After securing a copy of these results it was clear to me that they were far from unremarkable indicating problems, or potential problems throughout my major organs. My whole immune system was compromised. Having undertaken a revision cardiac myectomy procedure in April 2021 I worked hard to restore my health returning to active tennis by October 2021. However, I left Harefield hospital some 8kg (net of retained fluids) heavier and unable to lose this excess under normal diet and exercise during my return to health and fitness. Having researched what was pumped into me during surgery to gain so much retained weight it is likely caused by Hartnell’s Solution which appears to be a glucose bomb deposited in my liver and gallbladder. My blood tests indicated I was sleepwalking my way to diabetes.

As my liver determines the quality of blood to my eyes, I researched how I could lose this 8kg (17lbs) of excess weight without compromise to ensuring the nutrients required to restore my eyes and other organs to good health.

The medical response to my dilemma was that UK medical protocols do not permit the treatment of a number of organs simultaneously. My doctor chose to ‘repair’ my seemingly underactive thyroid with prescription drugs even after suggesting to him that my thyroid problem was likely a reaction to the underlying cause. I mention this because the medical establishment created this situation, commonly referred to as long covid but without any consideration of how to treat it.

Other concerns that needed address were:

  • During my revision heart surgery in April 2021 at Harefield Hospital I was given a contaminated blood transfusion infected with Antigen-E. This antigen is aggressive towards red blood cells reducing life of the cell and reducing integrity. This contaminant was a potential inhibitor to my recovery, but Harefield suggested there was no method of removal. Back to my research to find a USA patent filed in 1994 detailing a method to destroy biological pathogens by the introduction of an electron into the pathogen molecule – essentially a bullet to the head. This was easy to deliver using microcurrent technology after which the Haematology Department at Harefield certified the complete removal of this antigen.
  • As I can only attribute the complete breakdown in my established immune system to the Pfizer vaccine as can be clearly demonstrated with the significant deterioration of my health starting some 30 seconds after receiving the jab, I can only assume that this vaccine should have been identified as unsuitable for me.

My assumption was the Pfizer spike(S) protein was in my blood. As the spike protein is negatively charged it could well attach to my red blood cells degrading performance. Therefore, my objective was to rid myself of any residual proteins from this vaccine and rebuild my immune system. I had suffered two colds in two months – no viral infection has broken through my immune system since 2003.

Realising that I needed to solve my problems myself I formulated a strategy that would ensure:

  • restored digestive function pH ≤ 3
  • Maintain quality lung function
  • Loss of the excess weight impacting liver and gallbladder function
  • Adequate supply of vitamins, minerals, proteins, and enzymes using carefully selected sources and diet
  • Restore my immune system
  • Stay fit with a positive mental attitude.

Lung function was quickly under control with my Airnergy Pro+ machine – 2 sessions of 20 minutes per day.

Restore Digestive Function

AMD medical papers are now emerging that suggest a balanced diet is essential to eye function. However, if stomach function is not properly processing food intake the objective will not be achieved. Certainly, a good diet is essential to healthy living as is avoiding excess weight, but medics need to take a step back to digestive and lung function to make their pronouncements effective.

The medical expression for poor digestive function is hypothesis. My research revealed the typical indicators of hypothesis are:

  • Low red blood cell count
  • Low B12
  • Low actived oxygen in mitochondria

For the stomach to function properly it needs to generate HCL (hydrochloric acid) for which it needs inputs of zinc, potassium, and sodium chloride all of which are extracted from food intake. This HCL is triggered from gastrin which stimulates acid production during meals.

As a former sufferer of acid reflux, I can provide comfort to sufferers as curing acid reflux is the same process as for poor digestive function always assuming no other health issuers such as obesity, diabetes, smoking, and overconsumption of alcohol. Indeed, anything proposed in this paper either refers to the otherwise healthy, or a commitment to becoming healthy.

The UK NHS suggests acid reflux is the overgeneration of HCL and will prescribe PPIs (proton pump inhibitors) such as omeprazole or lansoprazole with all their nasty side effects. Current research and now practice in the USA suggests this approach is debunked as it is now realised that acid reflux is the under-generation of HCL, especially in the over 50s, resulting in low gastrin which results in the failure to close the lower oesophageal sphincter which then allows acid to flow up to the throat. Treatment for acid reflux changed in the USA in 2020 – when will the NHS catch up. For the purposes of this paper poor quality HCL and/or under-generation of HCL requires the same treatment.

The treatment does not require prescription drugs. All you need is Betaine Hydrochloride in capsule form taken before meals to stimulate HCL production before a main meal. To determine how much you need I can only point to the YouTube video by Dr Eric Berg titled ‘Repair Acid Reflux’. By way of reference, I used two capsules each containing 324mg Betaine Hydrochloride and 5mg Pepsin before my main meal for 4 days after which, because I started my diet, I switched to 1000mg Acetyl L-Carnitine before my main meal as per the recommendations of my chosen diet. Post-diet I maintain HCL levels with daily doses of pure apple cider vinegar, usually taken in the evening.

Weight Loss

Losing weight and restoring the nutrients required by eyes sounds counterintuitive. However, the threat of Type-2 diabetes makes losing weight fundamental to help restore a healthy body, especially the liver. Far too many laud lengthy periods of exercise as the method to lose weight. As a healthy 72-year-old still playing competitive tennis I can attest that exercise is important, but not to lose weight, only to maintain a healthy body. Exercise relates to skeletal muscle, not abdominal fat.

Having studied this subject in great depth, I was very disturbed yet again to study papers from the USA around 2020 that indicated that the epidemic of type-2 diabetes in the USA is due to clinicians using the wrong marker (blood glucose) for diagnosis reflecting only what is happening in the blood, not the body. Indeed, the treatments for diabetes under this error increases fat storage. It was determined that glucose is a symptom; insulin is the protagonist. For the past 2-years the USA has adopted the measurement of insulin as a diagnosis. Why is the UK NHS still languishing under the discarded process? Do we need an endemic in the UK before they wake up?

I also studied the use of SGLT2 inhibiters such as Canagliflozin (Invokana) and the more recent Metformin as part of a low carb diet but not convinced that this method of weight loss is effective in the long-term and tends to alter metabolic rate in any event. Same applies to fasting.

There are many weight-loss diets out there professing to be definitive. Having a traditional diet I chose the weight-loss diet that has survived challenge for many years being the Dr Atkins Diet Plan albeit I would not recommend the Induction Diet Plan for this purpose. I chose the Atkins-40 Plan which means I limit my carb intake to 40g per day and no snacking. It requires adapting to food available locally but not difficult. I allotted a maximum of 12 weeks during which time I lost 11kg (24lbs) after which I returned to a normal diet where my weight has since remained stable. In addition to the nutrients I use specifically for my eyes, I also stuck rigidly to the nutrient supplements recommendations with the diet. I would recommend securing a copy of the latest edition of ‘New Diet Revolution’ by Dr Atkins which provides comprehensive information needed during this diet including a required nutrition supplement list and variations for various medical conditions. It is also necessary to establish when, during the day, you need to take these supplements as some are not appropriate early morning, and most with food. Exception are liquid selenium (afternoon) (for thyroid) and liquid magnesium sulphate (around 20 minutes before retiring). Not all supplements are the same quality – choose carefully, and some recommended daily intakes are a function of body weight.

The nutrients, vitamins, and minerals specific to the eyes are as follow:

  • Lutein
  • Zeaxanthin
  • Billberry
  • Vitamin D3 (twice recommended daily amount: 4000 IU)

Restore Immune System

Since 2003 I have used an immune modulation system consisting of various ionised mineral salts which perform their task of penetration into my blood regardless of digestive function but is beyond the scope of this paper as it only takes a few days to restore digestive function so any quality immune supplement system will suffice.

Improve Well-being

Wellbeing and healthy lifestyle are important components in this process. The fear of losing sight can be stressful, but stress should be avoided. A positive mental attitude and belief that you can restore your eyes will significantly improve chances of success. I had Moorfields scan my eyes every 4 –5 weeks so that I could observe improvement as well as modify my strategy if needed. Even though there was no evidence of irregular vascular activity, and visual acuity had already restored to better than 6/9, I was persuaded to take one injection of faricimab after 4 months of my strategy as precautionary but only because I wanted to undertake two long-haul flights during my recovery process. If anything, either the injection and/or the flights set me back a few weeks requiring additional recovery effort. I certainly would not consider any further anti-VEGF injections.

I also made a conscious decision not to use any prescription or OTC drugs throughout my recovery period. Having suffered enough from medical intervention my choice was to naturally supply to my body everything it needs to repair itself.

Acupuncture

It is most certainly a paradox that acupuncture has been in medical practice by some 50% of the global population for more than 2,000 years but still no robust scientific understanding of why it works. However, it would not have survived if it does not work. As a scientist I was taught that if you observe an outcome that can be consistently repeated, believe it even though the capacity to understand why is still beyond us.

Although generally discounted by conventional Western medicine it is slowly but surely increasing its presence in pain management, fertility and, interestingly, long covid within mainstream medicine. It is certainly in widespread use in sports therapy and rehab.

Furthermore, the general view of acupuncture is the traditional method of needles at specific points along the meridians. However, acupuncture can also be achieved by manual wand, electronic stimulation, and Otto vibrational forks which I have used very effectively to immediately relieve the pain of arthritis in my left thumb having long abandoned ineffective steroid injections.

With nothing to lose I researched therapists within 25 miles. Having interviewed and discounted 6 such therapists I found Lianne Aquilina of Aquilia Acupuncture, trained in China, impressive credentials, and approved by private medical insurers. We spent a whole Sunday afternoon discussing my case and her proposed treatment process before engaging in treatment.

Fortunately, having spent much time in the Far-East during my career, I am familiar with acupuncture as a treatment having witnessed the power of such treatment in competent hands. I found a paper ‘Effects of acupuncture on age-related macular degeneration: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials’ March 2023 (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0283375) that looked at the benefits of using acupuncture as a treatment for AMD. Although not a rigorous randomised controlled trial it did include results from 508 AMD patients (631 eyes) of which 360 were dry eyes and 271 wet. The clearly serious and brutally rigorous analysis by the authors impressed me, and what interested me was the arguments why acupuncture could help AMD patients, especially with regard to treatment applied along the liver (LV) and gallbladder (GB) meridians.

Although I have no empirical evidence that acupuncture significantly contributed to my outcome Lianne was diligent in her regular reviews over the 16-weeks I engaged with her and the interesting vitals that acupuncture practitioners use to determine wellness of the body all showed significant improvement.

Conclusions

Both medical interventions responsible for my AMD events can be reasonably viewed as accelerated aging.

Assuming normal light conditions as the process, the eye lends itself to simple Black Box analysis with one [complex] input and one output.

It is acknowledged that ophthalmic professionals are likely to contest my views and approach (albeit I am aware of a number of optometrists in the UK who use Spirovital Therapy with their patients). It should be noted that, during my neovascular recovery, having declared the use of regular blood tests in addition to OCT scans to monitor progress, at no time did any ophthalmic professionals show any interest in these blood test results whereas my acupuncture practitioner wanted a copy for analysis as soon as available. These blood tests were critical to ensure my body was responding to the recovery strategy, especially my eyes.

As a qualified and trained scientist, I am fully prepared to argue my case and debate the logic and argument applied to my recovery. In any event the results speak for themselves, and mine is not the only reported recovery.

Everything is impossible until someone proves otherwise.

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My book ‘the Way’ is now published

What today is our understanding of Humanity and Society

What, today, is our understanding of Humanity? Demobbed from the daily need to seek an income provides time to reflect. Thinking back to life post-WWII when I was born into a society working together attempting to recover from the aftermath of a futile war and comparing to today where humanity is blindly staggering into a maze of conflicts, both political and ideological, my observation is that we learn nothing, merely degrade humanity.

Religion & Science

In ancient times religions were created to explain the awe and wonder of the World in which we live, invariably pointing to a higher power or creator or God as a focus for answers beyond our knowledge or conception.

Around the 15th century science started to contradict or provide answers to the teachings of religious teachings. This created a war between the church and science, the most prominent being between the Catholic church and Galileo which I understand is still considered the most expensive court case in history! In the past the church was able to exert it’s influence by stealth, and even by brutal force. But science prevailed. So is science the new God!

Medicine, electronic communications, space travel, genetic manipulation …. these are the miracles about which we tell our children. These are the miracles about which we now teach to our children. These are the miracles we herald as proof that science will bring us all the answers. The ancient stories of the creation of the World, immaculate conception, burning bushes, and parting seas are no longer relevant. God, as such, has become obsolete, science is the new God.

But let us examine the effect of this new God to see if it has benefited mankind or cost it dearly in terms of basic humanity. Science may have alleviated the miseries of disease and drudgery and provided an array of gadgetry for our entertainment and convenience, but it has left us in a World without wonder. Our sunsets have been reduced to wavelengths and frequencies. The complexities of the universe have been shredded into mathematical equations. Even our self-worth as human beings has been destroyed. Science proclaims the Planet Earth and its inhabitants as a mere speck in a grander scheme.

Even the technology that promises to unite us, divides us. Each one of us is electronically connected globally, and yet more people than ever feel utterly alone. We are bombarded with violence, division, fracture, exclusion, and betrayal. Scepticism has become a virtue. Cynicism and demand for proof has become enlightened thought. Is it any wonder that most humans now feel more depressed and defeated than they have at any point in history? Does science hold anything sacred? Science looks for answers – now in probing the unborn foetus and re-arranging our own DNA. It shatters the World into smaller and smaller pieces in the quest of knowledge and meaning … and invariably all it finds is more questions.

The ancient war between science and religion could be considered as over, as science has claimed to provide the answers to most great mysteries. But has it provided answers or merely radically reorienting our society that the truths we once saw as signposts, now seem inapplicable? Religions cannot keep up. Scientific growth is exponential. It feeds on itself like a virus. Every new breakthrough opens doors for more new breakthroughs driven by the commercial pressure on scientists to publish or suffocate. Mankind took thousands of years to progress from the wheel to the car. Yet only decades from the car into space. The Astra-Zeneca vaccine took 26 days where normal vaccine expectations can be 10 years. Now we measure scientific progress in weeks. Are we spinning out of control? The rifts between religion and science grow deeper and deeper, and as religion is left behind, people find themselves in a spiritual void. People cry out for meaning. We see UFO’s, engage in channelling, spirit contact, out-of-body experiences, drug induced experiences, mind-quests – all these eccentric ideas have a scientific veneer, but are they rational, or a desperate cry of the modern soul, lonely and tormented, crippled by its own enlightenment and its inability to accept meaning in anything removed from technology?

Has the unrelenting pace of scientific progress saved us, or provided more problems than solutions for humanity? Technology has provided social media, the plague of breeding malicious information which promotes insecurity, inadequacy, and fear into people. It further encourages the likes of Snowflakes and Wokes who spread their divisive ideologies which further divide society.

Since the days of Galileo, the church has tried to slow this relentless march of science, sometimes with misguided fervour, but always claimed as benevolent intent. But the temptations are too great for man to resist.

 
Look around yourselves – have the promises of science materialised? Promises of efficiency and simplicity have bred pollution, more confusion and chaos. We are a fractured and frantic species …. moving ever towards dislocation, displacement, disenfranchisement, exclusion – the effects of which now creates a society of fear and terror. Progress is important, but not at any cost.

What is this god called science which offers people power, but no moral framework to tell them how to use such power? What kind of god provides powerful technologies but does not provide the moral fortitude not to use such power for destructive purposes? What is this god that uses profit as a value judgement on whether the majority of poor, and oppressed live or die? The language of science comes with no signposts about good or bad. Have you ever read a scientific textbook that not only explains how to create a nuclear reaction, but also expressly defines the destructive dangers of such nuclear reactions and the moral implications?

So where is the voice of balance as science ploughs blindly on in the quest for smaller chips and greater profits? The people should expect this new god to govern themselves, but how can they? Their world moves so fast that if anyone stops even for an instant to consider the moral implications of their actions someone will whip past them in a blur. So on it moves proliferating weapons of ever increasing destructive powers to counter its own impact on humanity. People are encouraged to interact on phones, video screens, and computers, but who reminds them of the special benefits of communicating face to face? This god sees no profit in encouraging the most natural and beneficial communication between people, so is not encouraged.

The people who oppose such a new god are considered ignorant, living in the past. But who is more ignorant – the man who cannot define lightning, or the man who does not respect its awesome powers? The natural events such as recent tsunamis show us that there are far more powerful natural forces that we can ever defeat. We strive, at all costs, to be more powerful than such natural forces, which not only is a fool’s errand, but leaves in its wake a humanity ever more removed from any form of moral or spiritual conscience and thus become so spiritually bankrupt that we would rather believe in mathematical impossibility than in a power greater than us. At this juncture we must ask “Who are we?”

Whether or not we believe in a religious God we were given the intellect to know that when we, as a species, abandon our trust in a power greater than us, we abandon our sense of accountability. Faith … all faiths …. are admonitions that there is something we cannot understand, something to which we are accountable … With faith we are accountable to each other, to ourselves, and to a higher truth. All religions are flawed, control – order systems because mankind is flawed. However, looking beyond the ritual of these churches, they are mostly a brotherhood of imperfect souls spreading the word of compassion in a world spinning out of control. Does the world really need a voice for the poor, the weak, the oppressed, the displaced? Recent events such as Live Aid, Live8 etc have shown that there is a growing voice outside of the traditional religions – spanning all religions – imploring every one of us to read the signposts of morality and not let the pursuit of science and profit be to the detriment of our humanitarian responsibilities.

Today we are perched on a precipice. We now know the result of our urge for more profit and power at all costs. None of us can afford to be apathetic. None can say it is someone else’s problem. We, as a species, should have learnt by now that the basic instincts of compassion, morality, and accountability to each other are the real values that set us apart. We must all now re-ignite these values and strive to re-establish them as the cornerstone of humanity. We need to convince the followers of the science god that science is only valuable when it respects humanity and the values that make it great. We must also convince the purveyors of destruction that reside on the fringes of humanity, whoever and wherever they are, despot power zealots, or fundamental idealists, that their cause is lost, and they should rejoin humanity.

People & Nationality

The World today is a very small place. It is possible to get anywhere in the World in no more than one day. One hundred years ago this would be inconceivable. In some countries your nearest neighbour could be a day’s walk away. However, they were generally neighbourly, and a sense of community prevailed over many problems. Today neighbours as near as an adjoining house, or next-door apartment, are likely to be total strangers.

Technology has moved us closer together physically, but further apart spiritually.

We live in countries enclosed by boundaries both physical, and arbitrary. What are these boundaries that separate people? Who created them, and for what purpose? Why have they been continually redefined throughout history? Indeed, there are still such boundaries imposed by the outside world that are not understood by the indigenous people within those boundaries. There are still tribal structures that do not recognise, or even know about arbitrary boundaries imposed upon them. Even in the Middle East, much of which was carved up after the Second World War, some say arbitrarily, with a wide-tipped pencil – the thickness of the lines represent many miles of land! This has both created boundary issues such as Iraq and Kuwait, and even today means nothing to the roaming Bedouin tribes.

Within these boundaries we have the concept of nationality. What is nationality – probably a derivative of tribal structures. However, over the centuries people mobility has been far more fluid than boundaries. Such mobility could be voluntary, need for food, or imposed. Today, DNA can easily demonstrate that man has continually moved and interwoven throughout history, thus very few people in the World would be revealed as thoroughbred and indigenous to where they are today. So what makes us classify humanity into artificial structures of nationality when we will probably find that our forefathers migrated from faraway places? Used as a tool to create fellowship in healthy competition follows the tribal traditions of mankind but in peaceful harmony, not war.

Impact of the Covid Pandemic

I now reflect on what the behavioural phycologists advising the so-called medical “experts” (I consider the word “expert” the most degraded word in the English language this century) and Governments regarding the impacts of lockdown and work from home have learnt about their gross impact on society and humanity. I am reminded of two proverbs.

“Idle minds are the devil’s workshop”

“The devil makes work for idle hands?”

Covid lockdowns and work from home created many idle minds and hands some of whom chose to occupy themselves to use anarchy as a right to protest about statues, slavery, gender, etc wanting to rewrite history, and redefine society.

We should heed the thoughts of Voltaire – ‘those who can convince you of absurdities can convince you to commit atrocities’.

Hypothesis

The peoples of the world have either created division or had it imposed upon them by self-serving, morally corrupt autocrats degrading any reasonable concept of basic humanity in the name of progress and power. We have become numbed by science and divisive ideologies losing our moral compass. Discuss.

The Demise of Civilisation

It snowed last night so I made a snowman with my children.

A feminist passed by and asked me why I didn’t make a snowwoman. So, I added a snowwoman.

My feminist neighbour complained about the snowwoman’s voluptuous chest saying it objectified women.

The gay couple living nearby threw a hissy fit and moaned it should have been two snowmen instead.

A transgender man..women…person asked why I didn’t just make one snow person with detachable parts.

The vegans at the end of the lane complained about the carrot nose, as veggies are food and not for decorating snow figures.

I was called a racist because my snow couple are white.

A middle-eastern gent across the road demanded the snowwoman be covered up in the name of modesty.

The Police arrived saying someone had taken offence.

My feminist neighbour complained again that the broomstick of the snowwoman needed to be removed because it depicted women in a domestic role.

The council equality officer arrived and threatened me with eviction.

A TV news crew showed up. I was asked if I know the difference between snowmen and snowwomen? I replied “Snowballs” and am now called a sexist.

To sensationalise their story, I was on the News as a suspected terrorist, racist, homophobe sensibility offender, bent on stirring up trouble during difficult weather.

I was asked if I have any accomplices. My children were taken into care by social services.

Far left protesters, offended by everything, marched down the street demanding I be arrested.

Moral:

There is no moral to this story. It is what we have become, all because of Snowflakes.

Populist Politics + Liberal Democracy + Social Media = Anarchy

Following on from my recent blog Is Populist Democracy an erosion of Democratic Values much of what is anticipated played out in Washington last week. Having lived in the USA I have always found it difficult to accept the USA as a true democracy. The land of the free is a corruption of the concept of democracy especially when anyone has the right to bear arms on the street. I remember being embroiled in a shootout between police and bad guys in a shopping mall in downtown Buffalo with bullets flying around with neither side being proficient shots nor having any regard for potential collateral damage.

It is claimed that Donald Trump fanned the flames that caused a mob dedicated to Trump to storm Congress. Much for the World to understand about the state of mind of the USA not least the behaviour of the security services and police who essentially refused to confront this mob. Quite rightly much has been made about the contrast between the security deployed during the recent Black Lives Matter march on the White House and that deployed last week against a majority white mob.

And now Nancy Polosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, wants to apply her usual emotional and illogical reason to fan these flames further by screaming for impeachment of Donald Trump. No matter what her personal feelings towards Donald Trump if she is to respect democracy, she must respect the outcome of the Presidential Elections and understand that some 47% of the USA electorate voted for Trump, the second largest number of votes in US election history. This 47% have it in their heads, much through social media, that their man was cheated out of office. Their actions caused Trump to completely back off and is not totally neutered in disgrace. Why does Polosi not understand that the pragmatic approach is to allow these flames to ebb by quietly securing support from the Senate to distance themselves from Trump thus further neutralising him. There are but 10 days left before inauguration of Biden. There is no possibility of securing impeachment in this window, and I’m sure that Biden has more pressing issues on his desk. She must think about uniting the people behind Biden, especially now he can look forward to control of both Houses.

Wake up Nancy. Your personal outrage towards Trump should not be played out in your political role. If I were Biden she would most certainly lose her office. Furthermore, social media have now seen for themselves the impact of putting ‘freedom’ into the hands of the mob. I think it was Voltaire who said ‘Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. It is now time to instil responsibility into the social media platforms.

BREXIT: London Evening Standard or should it be Londoner Abend Standard

I had the need to visit London yesterday on medical grounds, collecting a copy of the London Evening Standard to read on my way home. Important editorial warning of the ever-increasing likelihood of London rising to tier 3 because of the rapid increase in Covid-19 infections is consigned to the bottom corner with the blazing headlines and main editorial focused on the doom and gloom of a no BREXIT deal. Whilst I appreciate that, overall, the vote in London to remain in the EU was marginally more than 50%, and the former schoolboy Chancellor now editor George Osborne is heart on sleeve Remainer, what happened to balanced reporting? And, of course, the doom and gloom can only be described as originating from the stable of Lord Haw-Haw.

But who are these people in London who cannot accept that we have already left the EU and now want to ensure that UK sovereignty is not compromised by any future arrangements with the EU? I know that some have vested self-interests which can only be described as selfish and certainly not in the long-term best interests of the UK. Remember the Corn Law wars. Others probably have property within the EU and selfishly do not want any added burden to their usage thereof. But surely there has been enough press on these negotiations to understand that the EU is fearful of the future enterprise of the UK embarrassing the EU and thus want to have the capability to rein in and stifle such economic prosperity as there is no doubt that the UK will certainly lead the EU in technology and innovation. You only need to see how many very bright young people have already departed the EU to the UK, USA, Canada, and Australia to know where they think their future lies.

Let us blow one myth currently touted by Remainer – the people of this country did NOT vote to leave the EU with a Trade Deal, they voted to rid themselves of the shackles of the EU. The current so-called Trade Deal is a blatant attempt by the EU to replace some of the shackles to UK prosperity and well-being all in the name of maintaining the integrity of the Single Market, the most protectionist market in the World. A no-deal BREXIT is by far a better scenario than one which continues to shackle the UK to the delusions of grandeur of the EU elite. Let me make my argument.

The EU, as a trading bloc, is possibly, but not certainly the largest trading partner of the UK as some UK business recorded by the EU is only in transit through the EU to non-EU destinations. These transactions will certainly continue regardless of the outcome of trade discussions. The UK’s largest single trading partner is the USA, and the UK is the third largest export market of Germany. Yesterday a German Minister was reported to state that a no-deal BREXIT will cost some 700,000 jobs in Germany, a serious economic impact.

The current net trade imbalance between the UK and the EU is EUR1 billion per WEEK in favour of the EU. Thus, the UK is an important trading partner for the EU.

The UK imports some EUR37 billion of perishables from France per year. What will happen to this produce if France throws its toys out of the pram and blocks this business, or prices it out of the market with tariffs? The French Government finally alerted producers in France last week that the UK has already sourced some 50% of this produce outside of the EU at cheaper sourcing prices, and the EU is not currently able to absorb this reduction in trade. These are perishable good with a finite usefulness so cannot be stored or held up by unwieldly red tape at ports. We are talking of EUR 700 million per week which is much transport logistics, and many thousands of people’s livelihoods. If these products are not freely and swiftly delivered, I predict the producers and supply chain will be on the streets in French cities, and some will burn.

Another French childish idiosyncrasy is the announcement that UK citizens will only be allowed to visit France for up to 90-days in any 180-day period. Considering that President Macron was a former banker does he not understand that people who choose to have extended visits to France spend money there which probably supports the economies of towns and villages they frequent?

Another announcement that also is absurd. The EU have announced that transport from the UK can only be single destination within the EU, the same with pick-up. Economically and environmentally ridiculous. Have the Londoner Remainers not noticed how may distribution hubs have been built in the UK this past year? The UK can play this silly game by restricting foreign lorries to one of these hubs from where goods will be distributed throughout the UK by local transport thus providing jobs here.

Another myth is there will be significantly more paperwork involved in a no-deal structure. Do the people of London think that UK firms only deal with the EU? Do the people of London think that UK trade with the EU will continue with existing paperwork in the event of an EU trade deal? Trading paperwork will comply with International Standards thus for exporters not wholly exporting to the EU little will change. In any event they will find that astute corporates have already reduced their exposure to the EU.

I heard a cynical so-called expert from the fishing industry (where does the media find these ‘experts’) say there is little or no benefit of UK fishermen resuming control of UK waters because most of the catch goes to the EU who will block trade. I remember when the fishing industry in the UK was decimated by the UK submission to the Common Fisheries Policy. It will take time to rebuild UK fishing fleets. An opportunity exists for existing UK fishing fleets. The shop and restaurants of the EU will still need fish. Where else can they get them? If the EU wants to impose tariffs the cost will be borne by the EU buyers, not the margins of the fishermen.

Another, no doubt, tale to spook is BMW intend to transfer production of the mini to Germany. Good luck with that one. They should learn by the woes of Jaguar Landrover who, a few years back, announced they wanted to build Jaguar cars in the USA, that is until they were told in no uncertain terms by the Jaguar Owners Club in the USA that their members would only buy cars built in the UK. Although Jaguar Landrover may have heeded that warning they decided to build the Landrover Discovery Sports in Croatia only to find that they cannot sell them in the UK. Production is now being transferred back to the UK. No knowledgeable car manufacturer will move production from the UK if they want to sell their vehicles. The Mercedes F1 racing team is not only championed by a British driver; the car is designed and built in Northampton, UK. Only the Mercedes badge is possibly produced in Germany.

The biggest laugh for me is the EU demand to have some regulatory control over the activities of the City of London, the financial capital of the World. I was part of the Passport negotiation with Jacques Delours and Prof Tickle with M. Barnier as a bit player. They came with demands from Germany to levy withholding taxes on trades with German citizens and any trade in German Bund. Delusional. They were told that they comply with International trading rules or go away. They now say the financial community in the City will only have restricted access to the EU. They forget that the Euro is and will remain cleared through London – embarrassing for such an important (in their mind) institution. The EU has no financial capacity to absorb the EU based derivatives so will continue in London. If any member State, or EU corporate wants to raise capital it must come to London. This will not change. So much for the mighty EU.

If I were strategically managing negotiations with the EU, in the event they are not willing to remove all the cynical Sovereign handcuffs from the deal I would concede to a no-deal scenario and prepare for WTO rules. I predict, by first quarter-end 2021 the EU will be back looking for a deal. The UK will have a bumpy transition but would under either scenario, and it’s clear that the Stock Market investors are not concerned either way. Investors are the people who put their money where their mouth is so others should listen. It should also be remembered that losing the UK will have far reaching negative impacts on the EU from which they might not recover. The German economy is built on a similar incestuous model as was seem in Japan in the 1970/80’s until it imploded. The UK does not want to be anywhere close to the EU when this happens. I shall also watch with interest as Putin imposes and interferes with the much-weakened EU, especially because the insane energy policy of Germany leaves them totally exposed to Russia. Without the influence of the UK, I think Putin will become emboldened in his dealings with the EU.

In summary I would suggest that Londoners still sleepwalking wake up to the reality that we have already left the EU. Whether or not we have a trade deal with the EU is of small consequence against our long-term freedom and prosperity. I would suggest when Londoners are free to travel the globe again, they stop someone in the street where they are and ask them a simple question – can you show me on a map where the EU and its capital, Brussels, is located? Then when their confused look diminishes ask them where the UK and its capital, London are located. Then remember what it is to be British and think of that quintessential Englishman, Captain Sir Tom and his true blue British view that tomorrow will be a better day.

BREXIT Negotiations and the General Election

 

BREXIT Negotiations and the General Election

 

Enough, enough of this childish behaviour. The desperation of the EU regarding BREXIT has now reach such a crescendo that long-standing political protocols have been ignored by Jean-Claude Junker and his merry men. His obvious frustration that he cannot impose his will on the British Government clearly demonstrates that the original view held by the British that he was not suitable for the job at the time of his appointment has indeed proven correct. I can only hope that Michel Barnier took him to the woodshed and firmly dealt with him.

 

Although Michel Barnier has refrained from making the same mistake he also demonstrates a lack of understanding of the British way. He hears the noisy whingers in the UK who fail to accept democracy, but he fails to understand they are the few; the silent majority will prevail as is always the case, so take your interfering rhetoric elsewhere. The Brits understand the stress you are under, not least because of the some 3.1B EUR of CAP subsidy that the French will lose each year after BREXIT. My message to Michel Barnier is use this as an opportunity to scrap the CAP which is well past it’s sell-by date. It is interesting that the NFU, representing British farmers, do not want to continue with such subsidy. They apparently want to follow the model successfully introduced in New Zealand where subsidy has been scrapped, but funds made available for bad years. This model works, so why does the EU insist that the UK supports the EU CAP until 2025? The CAP is not some long-term capital commitment; it’s a benefits system subject to fiscal policy.

 

Then we have the clap-trap rhetoric of the schoolboy brigade led by tiny Tim Fallon and Nick Clegg, and the obvious nationalist – ‘we will abuse any opportunity to seek independence’ – Nicola Sturgeon, suggesting our opening approach to the exit negotiations should be “compromise” and “concessions”. I was schooled in negotiation in the late 1970’s under Andrew Gottschalk, the then guru of international negotiations. I still have his Pocket Negotiator summarising the various stances that can be taken. None of them would include such words. At best one might use “reasonable” or “equitable” if both parties were amenable to a sensible negotiation. Having negotiated complex settlements throughout the World over the years I would enjoy negotiating BREXIT. Boy, would reality kick in regarding the rose-tinted spectacles of the EU mandarins. Coming to the table demanding money before discussing any consideration is contempt of the Lisbon Treaty which states that the whole divorce deal needs to be agreed as a single package. Anything else, such as a speedy conclusion of the rights of EU and UK citizens, is by mutual consent. But even this simple issue is marred by the ridiculous notion by the EU mandarins that EU citizens residing in the UK should be protected under EU, rather than UK law.

 

I chose to ignore the rambo rhetoric of Angela Merkel at this time as, having returned somewhat bruised from her visit with Donald Trump, she is now fighting for her political future in the upcoming elections. Her words are meant to placate the German public, and thus should be ignored in the UK.

 

Teresa May has shown true British grit, and now she wants her own mandate for all to see as she readies herself to battle in what will be an acrimonious divorce – not because of the UK, but more to dissuade other members from deserting the sinking ship. The more divisive it becomes the more likely the EU will collapse under its own intransigence.

 

I decided to examine the real issues at stake with our exit from the EU. Let us start with the emotional fear generated by the undemocratic remainers regarding trade, and their irrational fear of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union rules. I chose 2015 as a base year thinking that the ink would be dry by now on actual trade. I looked, primarily, towards OBR for the UK, and OEC for the EU. Was there any correlation – absolutely not. Little wonder that the accounts for the EU have not been signed-off for so many years. Therefore, I will use figures generally in agreement, but only for qualitative illustration purposes of the likely impact of a clean BREXIT.

 

Before looking at reported trade numbers it was interesting to note that some 40% of UK exports go to the EU, but this has been falling over recent years as a percentage of non-EU exports which appear to be increasing at some 2% per annum. It was also noted that this 40% included exports of petroleum products and gold to non-EU countries, but passing through Rotterdam. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the 40% of such high value trade represents as it could demolish the frequently stated rhetoric of the remainers that the EU is the UK’s largest export partner, and gold represents some 9.8% of total UK exports.

 

The 2015 figures reveal that the UK receives some 17% of total EU exports. The UK’s largest partner in the EU is Germany with a net UK deficit of some $54B. The UK is the 3rd largest export market in the World for Germany. The UK is also the 9th largest export economy in the World.

 

If we use the available numbers for 2015 regarding UK exports the principal recipients were USA $54.7B, Germany $39.5B, Switzerland $32.5B, China 27.6B, and Netherlands $23.9B (which possibly includes the non-EU petroleum products previously mentioned).

 

On the UK imports side our significant partners are Germany $93.9B, China $62.8B, USA $44.8B, Netherlands £44.4B, and France $37.6B.

 

Another interesting reveal was that GDP per capita for the UK and Germany are about the same at $48k.

 

If we use the available numbers for the UK with our largest trading partner in the EU, Germany, for illustration purposes we see that the UK exports $39.5B to Germany, and imports $93.9B from Germany leaving a trade deficit of $54. Let us assume that the EU mandarins are so enraged with BREXIT that they throw good economic sense to the winds such that the UK has to fall-back on WTO rules at some average 4% tariff. In this case the UK would charge enough in tariffs on German imports to repay UK exporters tariffs imposed by Germany and have funds left in the exchequer. This can only hurt Germany, resulting in a possible decline in German exports to the UK and the resulting loss of income and jobs. Politicians may think they have such power, but more than 30 years in international banking has taught me that, other than despotic dictatorships, business will prevail. Trade will continue, and consequently to the advantage of the UK.

 

As we are flooded with the French Presidential election at this time; both candidate seeking change in the EU, albeit from different angles, I will reiterate my view on the French stance on denying/restricting trade with the UK post-BREXIT. As with previous elections in France I do not envisage any change other than what the people demand on the streets. As much of the UK imports from France are farm produce and wine there is no possibility that the French people will allow any interference to this trade, even if this means flouting EU rules which, of course never apply to the French in any event. Also, why would the UK remotely consider continued support of the CAP if we did not have tariff free access to the produce?

 

I can imagine that the real thorn in the side of Brussels is the loss of the City of London. The EU have already been told that they are not fit to clear their own currency; the clearing must stay in London. There will be no credible capital raising power within the EU – mein Got. Deutsche Bank and ING have already committed more resources to London. Then we have the credit reference agencies threatening to downgrade the EU credit rating post-BREXIT. How could this happen to what the EU mandarins consider a superstate? How embarrassing. What a reality check.

 

International banks will need to open a token banking presence in each EU country in which they want to engage, as was the case prior to passporting. But the business will be conducted in London, as usual. Even New York has failed to attract such business as international investors want the security of English Law, the legal system built around international finance, and the most trusted in the World.

 

The cost to the EU of such a loss is enormous, both in cost and influence. So, will the City lose passporting – my bet is not.

 

So, what else does the EU lose? A shortlist would include the loss of a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the global reach and influence of the UK (still grudgingly accepted by the USA, and the British passport is still the most accepted in the World – ask the Scots), second largest contributor to the EU budget, best security services in the World, best EU military power, World class universities (in the top 25: UK 8, Germany 0), et al. What does the UK lose? Not a lot of any value, or that cannot be replaced. What a wonderful position to have at a negotiation.

 

 

 

BREXIT – 120 days on

univestBREXIT – 120 days on

It has been some 120 days post-Brexit, so where do we find ourselves when measured against the doom and gloom of the Remain campaign. We have a new PM, Teresa May who appears clear on what Brexit means, discovery that global organisations such as the IMF knowingly misled the British people, even the principal architect of the Eurozone claiming that it is now a ‘House of Cards’, and churlish self-interests trying to scupper Brexit with no regard for the democracy that they claim to cherish.

It is really sad for me to see that, amongst a significant number of people spanning all classes, there are elements of the British character that do no justice to our heritage of the UK great explorers and inventors that shaped this World of ours. I watched in disdain the current and excellent TV costume drama ‘Victoria’ recounting the trials and tribulations of Queen Victoria who reigned during the Industrial Revolution as scaremongers, vested interests, self-righteous, and ‘not-invented-here’ jealousy tried to stop the introduction of the steam locomotive. Thankfully, Prince Albert saved the day. Even today I hear eco-warriors stating that the Industrial Revolution was the beginning of the end of mankind, but where would these people, or even the World be without trains. India thrives on the railways, whereas Brazil, without much needed rail infrastructure, has serious transport and thus economic problems – look at the speed of rail infrastructure development in China.

Then I am reminded of the Neville Chamberlain pacifist era before the second world war when Winston Churchill, with his worldly experience, could see the ambitions of Hitler but, in spite of his fine rhetoric, could not persuade enough people that we needed to prepare ourselves for the inevitable. Indeed, according to Boris Johnson in his captivating book ‘The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History’, had the war been delayed by some two weeks Churchill would already have been hounded out of office!

We are told that we must learn from the past, but do we? During the referendum debate we had the David Cameron, George Osborne and Nick Clegg elite, all from privileged schooling, all career politicians with ideologies not supported by any worldly experience, and easily persuaded by more scurrilous and self-serving influences, preaching doom and gloom if we did not stay part of the EU project. They rallied any vested interest they could find including the IMF, the OECD, and President Obama – an embarrassing chapter for all of them. But history will not record any of them as good, let alone great politicians. David Cameron was clear in his Bloomberg address that if the UK did not get significant Treaty changes for the UK then he would vote out, yet like Chamberlain he returned from Berlin with a worthless piece of paper. He will be remembered as someone who readily changed his mind on substantial matters – not good leadership. But he has realised the errors of his ways and will fade quietly away. Osborne still finds occasion to try to placate his ego, and Clegg is now trying to rally support for a blatant counter-offensive to Brexit on the basis that people do not know what Brexit means. Let me assure him that the core ‘middle-England blue-blooded Brits’ that always save the day in times of need know precisely what it means – a clean exit from the EU in all respects, returning to a Sovereign State, just like most other countries in the World. As has been shown since Brexit, the UK is a major player in this World, and when we sneeze the World coughs. The EU needs the UK far more than the UK needs the EU.

So what has happened since Brexit. I would suggest that the most significant outcome is the clear demonstration of how the elite politics of today is so out of touch with reality, as is being played out in the USA today. What did go on behind closed doors that caused Cameron to accept that the UK should be sacrificed for ‘the greater good of Europe’? How many more times does the UK have to make significant sacrifices for Europe before Europe (mainly Germany) learns from it?

Let me take some words from a Telegraph article summarising a post-Brexit report from the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). This report goes above the head of the managing director, Christine Lagarde. It answers solely to the board of executive directors, and those from Asia and Latin America are clearly incensed at the way EU insiders used the Fund to rescue their own rich currency union and banking system. It states:

‘The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions.

It describes a “culture of complacency”, prone to “superficial and mechanistic” analysis, and traces a shocking break-down in the governance of the IMF, leaving it unclear who is ultimately in charge of this extremely powerful organisation.’

The IEO Report states that since 2011 some 80% of all IMF lending was secretly used to support the Euro – not within the mandate of the IMF, and why Asia and Latin America are so incensed. Add to this the recent publication by Prof Otmar Issing, the first chief economist of the ECB and principal architect of the Euro, in which he states that the rules laid down for the Euro have been so debased by politicians that the currency, and thus the Eurozone, is but a ‘House of Cards’ waiting to collapse. Thus the desperate need to keep the fastest growing economy in the Western World, the UK, inside the EU, not least because of the unique capital raising power of the City of London – thus the lies to the British public by both the IMF and the OECD during the referendum campaign.

By far the biggest everyday loss to the EU is the City of London. With the City inside the EU it could claim to be the most significant financial power on the international stage. Without it the Eurozone does not even have the capacity to clear its own currency. The EU desperately needs the capital raising powers of the City. All of this posturing regarding passporting can be put into perspective by ING announcing last week that it is moving some 40 of its prominent traders from two locations within the EU to London. The worst case scenario is we will return to the days before passporting whereby, under the rules that international banks can only engage in business in countries in which they have a physical presence, banks will re-establish little more than a rep office through which transactions will be directed to London. As for moving banking to Frankfurt and/or Paris it should be noted that during my more than 35 years in the City this has been muted on a number of occasions. Paris is a non-starter for a number of technical reasons, and Frankfurt for even more including that no self-respecting high flier banker would consider living there.

As for corporate business I think that the recent announcement by Apple, the largest company in the World, that it is moving and consolidation its European headquarters in London, with all of the tax implications included, states the blindingly obvious – London is the gateway to Europe.

In a recent French Presidential Campaign speech by Nicolas Sarkozy he clearly stated that his first day in office (if elected) would be spent in Berlin (note: not Brussels) putting a new EU Treaty together that would address the concerns of the UK to encourage them to stay within the EU. He knows that there will be revolution in France if the farmers got even a whisper that tariff barriers were to be imposed on the UK.

In Germany we also have elections on the horizon. I am certain that the elite of Germany will resign themselves to the inevitable Brexit and thus quietly encourage election results that will ensure that no harm comes to the valuable existing trading relations with the UK.

The principle voices of Angela Merkel in Brussels, Donald Tusk, Martin Schulz, and Jean-Claude Junker, are synonymous with the problems faced by the EU. On the one hand they are stating that the EU will survive Brexit. On the other that are issuing instructions to member states to clamp down on rising nationalism.

The good news is that GBP has depreciated from its over-valued level by some 17% causing the UK Stock Market to regain some of its lost value over recent years, and provide the stimulus for the return for a much increased manufacturing base – jobs, prosperity, less dependency on imports. It should be remembered that Germany pushed through the Eurozone project to devalue the over-inflated Deutshemark by some 30% – great for Germany, but a disaster for most other members.

This devaluation will mean price increases to the UK consumer of imported goods and thus stimulate much needed, but controlled inflation reducing the need for QE and restoring interest rates to more normal economic levels. Some of this increase could be artificial as EU Governments put pressure on their major suppliers to increase prices to the UK as per the much publicised Unilever to Tesco increases which resulted in an embarrassing climb-down by Unilever. The real price increases will put upward pressure on wage demands – good for the workers who generate the wealth but contained to 2% pa or less wage growth over recent years, but not so good for fat executives who have enriched themselves with wage growth of around 10% pa during the same period. Also we can be competitive manufacturers and return to the days of ‘Buy British’. We can even return to eating our own delicious apples, currently outlawed by the EU to force import from the likes of France. The UK Government could easily buffer the increased price of fuel and energy (increases not EU related) by reducing, or indeed eliminating all of the absurd anti-competitive eco taxes on UK energy prices.

Trading with the World, including Europe will certainly not get worse, but is likely to improve. The intransigence of the EU Commission regarding trade with the EU is legion – ask the Americans. Our global relationships will prosper far more after the dust of Brexit has settled.

The issues we face today are the posturing, petulance, grandstanding, etc by both a dying EU and those die-hard remainers in the UK who have jettisoned democracy in favour of their own self-interests. This causes turbulence in the markets, no doubt exacerbated by the more influential remainers. The professional financial markets love such turbulence as they use it to generate good profits. The losers are the general public in whose lives the media relish creating uncertainty, and which impacts their cost of living resulting in understandable protest. How many media outlets have directly associated recent fuel price increases with Brexit? Oil prices are recovering from two years of global turmoil, and should settle around US$60 per barrel. The UK has a much needed currency devaluation regardless of Brexit. De facto prices will increase from their extraordinary lows over recent months regardless of Brexit. I can remember when oil prices were US$16 per barrel, and more recently US$120 per barrel – but neither to do with the EU or Brexit.

Brexit has not yielded doom and gloom, not even a technical recession. The UK is now projected as the fastest growing Western economy. Just as with the resistance to the steam locomotive in Victorian times it is time to ignore the doomsayers and grasp the opportunities that now present themselves so that, as with the proliferation of railways, the UK will again rise be a major and great player in this World in its own name.

 

2-weeks post-BREXIT. Where are we?

univest2-weeks post-BREXIT. Where are we?

The EU Referendum has raised a number of issues that show why this referendum was needed. During recent years politics has become too elite and detached from the people it is there to serve. A good shakeout is necessary, as is happening in the USA. BREXIT has triggered this process in Europe, and especially the EU. So where are we post-BREXIT?

Scare Story: The UK will suffer unprecedented political turmoil

This is true, but more in the EU than the UK. The reaction at the quickly convened emergency meeting of the European Parliament on the Monday following BREXIT resembled more a Third World bun fight than a rational First World debate. The exchange of insults and rebuke was extraordinary.

The UK political turmoil has shown that David Cameron lacks the qualities of a true leader. Having consented to a referendum on the basis of a reformed EU, which he did not achieve, a strategically capable leader would have returned from Brussels to announce his frustration with Brussels, and then overseen the referendum debate without expressing his own view, or that of the Government, ready to implement the decision of the people (democracy) thus providing the political leadership and continuity post-BREXIT that is currently so lacking. We have a political vacuum until we have a new leader – not good for confidence around the world.

This political vacuum has fuelled an anti-democratic minority to challenge the outcome of the EU Referendum result. It is interesting to note that these whingers obviously have the view that a democracy can only be democratic when the vote result concurs with their view. And these whingers include people like Richard Branson who, reportedly, saw some 30% wiped off his Virgin empire. The people have spoken and, with a larger turnout than your average General Election, the clear majority voted for BREXIT. In a democracy every citizen has the obligation to make themselves aware of the issue requiring a vote of the people, and to cast their vote accordingly. In this digital age there is no excuse for lack of information. The result is clear, so to the whingers – move on; we will flourish.

The positive result of this turmoil as we approach political summer recess is that the UK Civil Service has time to consider the optimal exit terms for negotiation with the EU, and a period of reflection by the EU machine. As I refine this blog I found an article in yesterday’s London Evening Standard written by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister, in which he acknowledges that the EU elite have been indifferent to the voices of the people, causing great unrest. His solution – even faster political and economic integration. Will they ever listen?

Scare Story: The UK markets will collapse with pensions and quality of life in decline, and London will lose its status as the Global Financial Centre

Since the casino players, looking purely to make money from the volatility surrounding the referendum vote, have gone to sleep (when will the G7 address this global destabilising problem) the UK stock markets have stabilised, and indeed risen some 15% – a vote of confidence by investors, and good for pension funds. Adjustments will occur as the UK realigns itself; albeit the attack on commercial property funds is bizarre. Furthermore all talk of the capital markets moving within the EU has evaporated – the underlying covert motive by both the USA and Germany having been neutralised.

Our EU partners have not been so fortunate in that the BREXIT vote has caused much instability within the EU forcing markets down by as much as 15%. Although they have recovered some of these losses there is little evidence of full recovery any time soon. Italy is on the brink of a banking crisis, and there is much discontent within the EU. We have the USA regulators stating that both Deutsche Bank and Banco de Santander fail their stress tests and thus must increase capital if they wish to continue to trade US dollars. And of course VW are looking at considerably more substantial fines around the world. There is also reported a vote of no confidence for the EU to settle Euro transactions.

The doomsayers claim that the 10% fall in sterling against the US dollar is a major disaster for the UK. On the contrary sterling has been over-valued for some time damaging the ability of the UK to sell its goods overseas. As I write this blog sterling has recovered to 1.29. It would be better for the UK economy if this rate fell below 1.26 for a few months before the US Presidential elections will likely deflate the US dollar, pushing the value of sterling up again. I would remind the whingers that when Germany pushed for the introduction of the Euro the result for Germany was an effective significant devaluation of the Deutschemark which was much needed by the German economy to trade themselves out of the grossly underestimated cost of reunification – but at a real cost to all other Eurozone members.

Scare Story: The UK will require years to negotiate new trade deals with the Single Market and the World

There are a number of countries, including the USA and Germany, who want to be first to sign trade deals with the UK. There is much confusion being hoisted by the whingers about the single market. The UK does not need to be part of the single market for the same reasons that are frustrating the trade deal between the EU and the USA (who already trade more with the EU than does the UK). What we need is tariff-free trade deals with each of the member states who wish to engage with us. If Germany can do this then why not all other member states? The EU is fragmenting, and will need significant reform if it is to survive – including trade relationships. Regardless of the political rhetoric Germany will not risk the loss of its significant exports to the UK, and France will follow.

Scare Story: UK citizens will lose the right to freely travel, work and live in the EU countries

Today UK citizens need a passport to travel into the EU member States, and to return from them. Travelling freely within the EU countries is defined by the Schengen Agreement between member States and thus does not change anything for UK citizens. Moving to an EU member State may change, but looking at the number of EU citizens living in the UK reciprocity is the likely outcome.

Scare Story: The UK is too small and insignificant to go it alone

The UK coughed on the 23rd June, and the whole world sneezed, and is still sneezing. The UK has always punched well above its weight, and always will. London is the most important global financial centre in the world, and thanks to BREXIT, will retain this status. The EU loses one of its two permanent seats at the UN Security Council, and loses the global diplomatic reach enjoyed by the UK. As the fifth largest economy in the world the UK will find its feet over the coming months, and then flourish. The EU may not be so lucky.

 

A few days ago I listened to an interesting discussion regarding the total breakdown of the former USSR. The original discussions with Gorbachev revolved around the satellite states adjoining the eastern borders of Western Europe. However, as the Berlin Wall fell practically all members of the USSR declared their own freedom from Moscow. The view was that Moscow thought it could impose a homogeneous citizen unity across the USSR without any regard for the diverse nature and cultures of each nation state. Thus laws and regulations formulated in Moscow intended to create a homogeneous USSR caused resentment and unrest in these States – the response being typical Roman-type repression by Moscow, and ultimately downfall. Even the Romans knew better when they built their empire. What could the EU learn from this? Brussels relentlessly moves towards a United States of Europe without the consent of the people. Whether they use brute force, or financial pain they attempt to impose their will over each member State. The majority of people in the UK have said ‘NO’, and I fully expect others to follow.

A few weeks before the referendum vote I listened to an interesting debate by university students regarding the EU Referendum. They did not have guest speakers, rather relying on four students on each side of the debate to put their respective cases. The debate was surprisingly articulate. The audience was an estimated 100 students who, after the debate, overwhelmingly voted for BREXIT. This tallies with the young vote of some 25% of 18 – 24 year-olds. The triangle of knowledge for 16 – 24 year-olds (post-university) consists of students who have both the intellect and knowledge to analyse issues, students who have the knowledge but not enough intellect to fully appreciate the issues, and the remainder who prefer to go to the pub and watch football. The proportion of students who have both the intellect and knowledge average around 23%. Thus most of the 25% who voted for BREXIT are likely to have understood why. The other two sectors are likely to take the safe option to stay with what they know, or not vote. Therefore, I do not accept that the older (wiser) voters in any way let the young down. This is why the social engineering of the Blair/Brown Government sending 50% of the young to university was ridiculous, a waste of money, and did nothing for those who leave lesser universities with a degree and considerable debt but with no prospect of the suitable job that was implied was available for them.

I have also heard from the young that they wanted to remain in the EU to take advantage of the Erasmus program to study in Europe not realising that this program has little to do with the EU, but formulated as an exchange program between the universities, and includes universities in the USA. There is no possibility that this will end as a result of BREXIT, not least because of the significant number of European students who want to take advantage of the far superior red brick and CAT universities in the UK.

Just as a footnote, I chose to assess the views of the more canny Scottish voters regarding the post-BREXIT opportunist actions of Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister in Scotland, as I did before the Scottish Independence Referendum. The result then was a resounding vote to stay in the UK. A vote today between the UK and the EU would yield the same result. So Nicola, don’t waste your time as the people do not want your pathway, and I cannot imagine the EU entertaining yet another country joining on a net beneficiary basis in any event. The EU Referendum was on behalf of the whole of the UK, and the people spoke. Let it be. There is a bright tomorrow for the UK, so let us focus on the future together.