A View on post-BREXIT not yet discussed
In general I tend to agree that the economic data banded around from both sides of the EU Referendum argument to be irrelevant, not least because such data will be skewed by undeclared terms of reference, and vested interests. However, there are referendum issues not being addressed, and a likely outcome scenario not even discussed.
We invariably hear both Cameron and Corbyn declare that we should remain in a REFORMED EU, but has any political commentator asked what they mean by REFORMED, and how they intend to achieve such reform? Not to my knowledge. This is a very important point as I would suggest that the deal that Cameron produced at the start of the referendum is little better in the medium to long-term than the agreement waved at the people by Chamberlain just before WWII.
As a seasoned player in real-world geo-politics and geo-economics for over 35 years I would like to suggest a likely outcome of a BREXIT vote. Certainly there will be much hostile media posturing by EU mandarins, not least to try to prevent a rush to the exit by other member States. However, behind closed doors the mood will be far more sober as Germany almost certainly cannot sustain the EU without the UK. It is reasonably certain that free trade will continue as the German Government could not sustain the wrath of its corporate giants who export much to the UK, and we are well versed in the way that French farmers will bring the French Government into line. What I expect to happen is a call between Berlin (not Brussels) and London to determine what reforms would change the view of the British people. Thus the period following BREXIT would more likely be Treaty reform to put to the UK to keep the UK in. The UK Referendum result is not legally binding on the UK Government so a vote in the House of Commons to accept a revised (reformed) EU Treaty with a General Election in sight would likely keep us in the EU. The BREXIT would merely accelerate the reforms that are generally accepted as needed throughout most member States, with the full support of most member States. Thus a BREXIT vote could see us as a good citizen of Europe.
Another important factor in this debate is the supremacy of English Law, especially in trade and finance. The reason that the City of London is the financial centre of the world is the global confidence in English Law over all others relating to trade, capital markets, and insurance. If this is diluted by EU supremacy then the resulting instability will be felt globally, as well as UK GDP. During my career Frankfurt has attempted on two occasions to steal part of this valuable asset, and France continues to dream of doing the same. Retaining the supremacy of English Law in this EU arena is vital to UK prosperity.
As for the global impact of BREXIT there is no doubt that there will be a short period of volatility but I would suggest that such volatility will pale against the global impact of the recent adjustment in China and its continued economic slowdown, and a Trump victory in November. Unfortunately, we live in times of a new breed of unscrupulous large blocks of wealth that avariciously feed on volatility purely for greed, and they have the wealth to exaggerate such volatility to maximise their profit. When will the G7 address this global instability?